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Saturday, May 31, 2008

Very nice article in The Washington Times today. (Edited to the best bits)

The Fading of the Mirage Economy By Steven Pearlstein
The global economy is purging itself of unsustainable imbalances. Most of us understand that an overabundance of cheap credit created a housing bubble that produced too many homeowners supporting a lifestyle they could not sustain. We are now coming to accept the reality of lower prices and the wisdom that a house is not a substitute for a retirement fund.

The reality is that for too many years, airlines have sold too many tickets at prices that failed to reflect the real cost of providing the service passengers want and expect. But they also include costs that may be less obvious, like keeping up with preventive maintenance, hedging fuel costs, paying a decent wage to front-line employees, investing in modern air traffic control systems, and paying a price that reflects the true value of scarce air space and landing rights.
Airline executives will say that if they were to charge enough to reflect all these costs, they would have many fewer passengers. That's the point: A sustainable equilibrium will inevitably involve a smaller industry with fewer planes, fewer flights, fewer passengers and fewer employees.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Enjoying new job immensely. Fervently hope that can do the job to everyone's satisfaction, scared that I won't be able to. Anyway hope to try my very best.

Some good stuff from Emerson on Fate :

  • The Turk, Arab and Persian accepts the foreordained fate :

"On two days, it steads not to run from thy grave,

The appointed, and the unappointed day.

On the first, neither balm nor physician can save,

Nor thee, on the second, can the Universe slay."

  • Great men, great nations, have not been boasters or buffoons, but perceivers of the terror of life, and have manned themselves to face it.The Spartan, embodying his religion in his country, dies before its majesty without a question.
  • The bill of a bird, the skull of a snake, determines tyrannically its limits. So is the scale of races, temperaments, sex, climate and the reaction of talents imprisoning the vital power in certain directions.
  • Let him value his hands and feet, he has but one pair. So he has but one future, and that is already predetermined in his lobes and described in that little fatty face, pig-eye , and squat form. All the privilege and legislation in the world cannot help to make a poet or a prince of him.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Don't sweat the small stuff.
  • Do something nice, don't tell anyone about it.
  • Remember that when you die, your in-basket won't be empty.
  • Lower your tolerance to stress : What you want to do is notice your stress early. When you feel your mind moving too quickly, its time to back off and regain your bearings. When your schedule is getting out of hand, its a signal to slow down and reevaluate what's important rather than power through everything on the list. When you're feeling out of control and resentful of all you have to do, rather than roll up your sleeves and "get to it", a better strategy is to relax, take a few deep breaths and go for a short walk. When its small, its manageable and easy to control. As you lower your tolerance to stress you will also see things as they are and come up with creative ways to handle the work. (E.g. ask someone to help, talk to manager)
  • Repeat to yourself : "Life isn't an Emergency". We take our own goals so seriously that we forget to have fun along the way and we forget to cut ourselves some slack. We beat ourselves up because we cannot meet self-imposed or arbitrary deadlines. The first step to becoming more peaceful is to admit that in most cases you're creating your own emergencies.
  • Set aside Quiet Time, Every Day. : Mornings, its absolutely silent outside and I am in complete solitude. There is something rejuvenating and peaceful about being alone and having time to reflect, work or simply enjoy the quiet.
  • Breathing from the Belly : Breathe before your Speak. Increased patience and remarkable results for virtually everyone who has tried it. Pause and breathe after the person to whom you are speaking is finished. You will get used to the beauty and power of breathing. We will overreact less, misinterpret meanings less, will not impute false motives or form opinions before our fellow communicator is finished.
  • Praise and Blame are All the Same. : One of the most unavoidable life lessons is having to deal with the disapproval of others. The sooner we accept the inevitable dilemma of not being able to win the approval of everyone, the easier our lives will become. "Here is is again. That's okay"
  • Quiet the Mind. "All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone". Train your mind for 5-10 mins a day. Close your eyes and focus your attention on your breath- As thoughts enter your mind, gently let them go and bring your attention back to your breath. This isn't easy, beginners can only do it for seconds at a time.
  • Cut yourself some slack. There will be many times when you lose it, get used to it. When you do it, its okay. Just start again.As long as your doing your best and moving in the right direction, that's okay.
  • Become an early riser. An hour or two that is reserved just for you-before your day begins-is an incredible way to improve your life. Sometimes I'll just sit and do nothing. The phone never rings, no one is asking me to do something for them., and there is nothing that I have to absolutely do. By the time everyone wakes up, I feel like I've had a full day of enjoyment.. All of a sudden, the books are getting read, the meditation gets done, the sunrise appreciated. Turn off the TV at night and get to sleep and hour or two early.
  • Listen to your feelings : You have at your disposal a foolproof guidance system to navigate you through life. You can think of your negative feelings in the same way you think of warning lights on the dashboard. Don't pretend that negative feelings don't exist. Instead of rolling up your sleeves and fighting, back off, take a deep breath and relax. Remember life isn't an emergency unless you make it so.
  • IF Someone throws you the Ball, You don't have to catch it. Developing a more tranquil outlook on life requires that we know our own limits and take responsibility for our part. By simply not answering the phone, or on being insulted or criticised, if you choose to drop the ball, means some more peace of mind. You can either catch it or drop it and go on with your day.
Stress !

Stress is caused by two things and two things only :
  1. Any time we believe we "have to do something".
  2. Any time there is a conflict between our actions and beliefs.

When you pretend not to like do something, pretending to enjoy something you don;'t really like, or any time of pretending whatsoever, you are "coping". Coping causes physiological havoc inside your body. The answer or alternative to coping, is complete honesty - especially with yourself. This puts realness back into your life and eliminates feeling out of control. As you honest with yourself, you are living life as it really is and the result is true joy rather than pretended happiness. Self-honesty fosters good health.

In a nutshell, the way to avoid coping is to be completely honest with yourself. Coping is just surviving. Self honesty gives vigor to life and fosters strength. When hurting words are spoken, damaging deeds are done, or discouraging events take place, you can focus on your feelings and not try to hide them. This gives your hypothalamus some rest. The only message that is stored is the truth- that your feelings were hurt, you struggled to get by, or you felt sad. All this does is reinforce to the mind that your ability to feel and to recognize feelings is still functioning and a series of 1400 chemical reactions which constitute survival or coping mode will never be initiated.

Blowing up and getting angry, giving up, or gritting your teeth and going at it again all allow the survival mode to keep on going which is bad for the body.

Re-energizing is simply doing things that you really enjoy. As soon as you begin to experience stress, you lose sight of who you really are and what you enjoy doing. You begin to ignore your dreams and aspirations and put them aside.

You have been taught to ignore your feelings because the only thing that is important is being successful. Unfortunately, this system also teaches you to pay less and less attention to the child within you that does understand what you want. Along the way, creativity, originality, fun and individualism become lost. The child in you wants to crate new things, to play and laugh, climb mountains, sail around the world, give a big hug, splash in the puddle, explore the wilderness, fight the bad guys and win, find a Cinderella or Handsome Prince, collect pretty things , and let the wind blow your hair wherever it wants.

For most people the end point is feeling worthless and/or depressed. I would rather go to work than be depressed. I don't end up being guilty, frustrated or worthless. So "I want to go to work". Reality then is that "I want to go to work" not that I have to go to work.

Each of us already knows what the ideal "Big Picture" is for us. It is in our heart, we can feel it. So, taking your time to feel what is most important to you is important.. Your feelings are very close to the truth. Trust them. A good person is loving, honest, kind , courageous, gentle, industrious, financially independent, compassionate, giving and forgiving.

The result of being free from stress is that the body can operate in the efficiency mode as it was designed to do.

Prevention :

  • Exercise : 5 days 20-60 mins exercise.
  • Water : Liquid Gold. Drink water when you feel you're hungry
  • Low fat food.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Sir John Templeton also tells us: "Before this century is over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will probably be over one million versus around 10,000 now. So for the long-term, the outlook is tremendously bullish if you buy stocks blindly to keep for a century."

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Read a bit about Lincoln today. Interesting to read his comments on liberty for slaves, yet acknowledge social disparities. Found some of his quotes :


  • "If I were to try to read, much less answer, all the attacks made on me, this shop might as well be closed for any other business. I do the very best I know how - the very best I can; and I mean to keep doing so until the end. If the end brings me out all right, what's said against me won't amount to anything. If the end brings me out wrong, ten angels swearing I was right would make no difference." The Inner Life of Abraham Lincoln: Six Months at the White House by Francis B. Carpenter
  • "Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it."
  • "My paramount object in this struggle is to save the Union, and is not either to save or to destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that. "
  • "Common looking people are the best in the world: that is the reason the Lord makes so many of them."
  • "Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration."
  • "With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in; - to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace, among ourselves, and with all nations."
  • "I am rather inclined to silence, and whether that be wise or not, it is at least more unusual nowadays to find a man who can hold his tongue than to find one who cannot."
  • "I have not permitted myself, gentlemen, to conclude that I am the best man in the country; but I am reminded, in this connection, of a story of an old Dutch farmer who remarked to a companion once that 'it was not best to swap horses while crossing streams'."
  • "Whenever I hear any one arguing for slavery I feel a strong impulse to see it tried on him personally."
  • "The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just; it shall not deter me."
  • "Leave nothing for tomorrow which can be done today."
  • "Discourage litigation. Persuade your neighbors to compromise whenever you can. Point out to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser - in fees, expenses, and waste of time. As a peacemaker the lawyer has a superior opportunity of being a good man. There will still be business enough."
  • "I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been in favor of bringing about in anyway the social and political equality of the white and black races - that I am not nor ever have been in favor of making voters or jurors of negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I as much as any other man am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race. I say upon this occasion I do not perceive that because the white man is to have the superior position the negro should be denied everything."
  • "I have never said anything to the contrary, but I hold that notwithstanding all this, there is no reason in the world why the negro is not entitled to all the natural rights enumerated in the Declaration of Independence, the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. I hold that he is as much entitled to these as the white man. I agree with Judge Douglas he is not my equal in many respects---certainly not in color, perhaps not in moral or intellectual endowment. But in the right to eat the bread, without leave of anybody else, which his own hand earns, he is my equal and the equal of Judge Douglas, and the equal of every living man. "
  • "With some the word liberty may mean for each man to do as he pleases with himself, and the product of his labor; while with others, the same word may mean for some men to do as they please with other men, and the product of other men's labor. Here are two, not only different, but incompatible things, called by the same name - liberty. And it follows that each of the things is, by the respective parties, called by two different and incompatible names - liberty and tyranny."
  • "It is said an Eastern monarch charged his wise men to invent him a sentence to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented : 'And this, too, shall pass away.' How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!"
  • "I am not a Know-Nothing. That is certain. How could I be? How can any one who abhors the oppression of negroes, be in favor of degrading classes of white people? Our progress in degeneracy appears to me to be pretty rapid. As a nation, we began by declaring that "all men are created equal." We now practically read it "all men are created equal, except Negroes." When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read "all men are created equal, except Negroes and foreigners and Catholics." When it comes to this, I shall prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty - to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure and without the base alloy of hypocrisy."
  • "Stand with anybody that stands RIGHT. Stand with him while he is right and PART with him when he goes wrong."

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

From Berkshire Annual Meeting 2008


  • Munger : The key is not to be seduced by crazy ideas, but instead just stick to the fundamentals year after year. Academia doesn't get too interested in us -- we're too simple. What would the professors do? A great many of the formulas [they use to analyze securities and markets] are dead wrong. They exist purely to give the intellectual class something to do. We don't do anything just exercise our intellectual proclivity for mathematical formulas."
  • Then Buffet said one of the most remarkable things I've ever heard him say: "There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."
  • Q: You said before that one of the things you look for in businesses you're buying is good managers. To me, that's a hard judgment to make if you haven't known him for long on a personal level. How do you go about figuring that out about somebody?
    WB: We're buying businesses where the managers come with it, so I do have a record [I can judge]. If I had to pick out the five people in this group here who would be the best managers, I wouldn't know how to do it. I mean, you all have great IQs, great academic records. You've all shown the energy to get into school.
  • Can I pick out the five best? I don't think I can do it. What I can do, when I've seen somebody run a business for 20 years, is decide whether they're going to keep behaving in the future as they have in the past. So when I buy a business - it's the biggest question I ask - "Do they love the money, or do they love the business?" [One giveaway is] if they auction the business. We've never bought a business at an auction.
    I got a fax from a fellow named Peter Liegl from Forest River. I said, "Pete, send me the last few audits and I'll call you tomorrow" Never met him, never heard of the company. (It's a RV company.) So I called him that afternoon. I said, "Pete, here's what I'll do. And if it works for you, fine." I'd never met the guy, but I could still tell by just the way he presented it and his thinking on it.
    I said to him, "Pete, what kind of salary would you like"; this is a company that did a billion seven last year. That's not the way they teach you to do it in business school, but I don't want anybody working for me that has a compensation system they're unhappy with. And he said, "I don't know." And I said, "Well, just tell me because I want you to be happy. You have to run this thing." "Well," he took a little while, "Well," he said, "I looked at the proxy statement, you make $100,000. I wouldn't want to make more than you do." So that became his salary.
    I said, "I want you to have a percentage interest in future earnings above this level," which we worked out. But he offered $100,000 and I offered the percentage above that. I've never seen this place. I hope it's there. [Laughter] Pete may have some 11-year-old kid in there that says, "What figure shall we send Warren?" [Laughter]
    He doesn't need the job. As long as that thing is a lot of fun for him, he's going to keep running it. [I get offered all] kinds of deals from LBO operators. I would just love to bet against the projections of every one that they give me. They hand me these books, which I don't even want to look at, and of course they always just project like that [points upward like a graph that only increases]. I would just love to make a career out of betting against the figures presented in those books, but I don't get a chance to do that. If you ever get a chance to short investment banker books, that would be a great activity.
  • We don't think about cost of capital or risk-adjusted. I mean, we don't want to take any risk, and we don't. That doesn't mean we don't do things that are wrong, but we are not doing anything that risks real losses.

    And as I said earlier [regarding stock holdings], we would have sold the thing to do something that offered even better opportunity. If it's going to permanently lose money, I reserve the right to sell it, and if it has labor problems, I reserve the right to sell it. They've been there for 20-plus years, those principles. But we believe in them. We follow through on them.
    The smaller capital expenditures, or even fairly large ones at the subsidiaries, they just do them themselves. They don't need me, because if some guy comes in to me and talks about something in the yarn plant or something in Georgia, what the hell do I know about it? If I say the internal rate of return we demand is 15.83, it'll be 15.84. I mean, you just can bet on it. We don't go through those charades. And it saves my time, saves their time.
  • There isn't one security that I've got in the portfolio that I look at as-in terms of risky - in the sense of permanent capital loss. They can go down 50%.
    Berkshire Hathaway (
    BRKA, Fortune 500) stock itself has gone down 50% three times since I bought the first stock in at 7 3/8. In 1974 it got cut in half. In 1987 it got cut in half. In 1998, 2000 or so it got cut in half. So that doesn't make any difference. I mean, I just don't worry about it. I worry about permanent loss of capital. I worry about making the right businesses. I worry about keeping the managers happy. Everything else pretty much takes care of itself.
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. says its first-quarter profit fell 64%, because it recorded an unrealized $1.6 billion loss on its derivative contracts. BRK.A reported net income of $940 million, or $607 per share, in the quarter ended March 31. That's down significantly from the net income of $2.6 billion Berkshire generated a year ago.
    Warren Buffett, warned shareholders in his annual letter that the derivatives could make the company's earnings volatile. But Buffett predicted the derivatives will ultimately be profitable.
    The four analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected earnings per share of $1,476.99 on average.