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Showing posts with label TOP. Show all posts

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Happiness Advantage Notes

Notes from "The Happiness Advantage " (Author : Shawn Achor)

  • 69% of high school and college students report that their career decisions depended on chance encounters. 

  • Armed with positivity, the brain stays open to possibility. Priming your self to expect a favorable outcome actually And codes your brain do you recognize the outcome when it does in fact arise. The people who would claim to be unlucky in life again looked right past opportunity. Expecting positive outcomes actually makes them more likely to arise.
  • The best way to kickstart the positive Tetris effect is to make a daily list of the good things on your job, your career, and your life. When you write down a list of three good things that happened that day your brain will be forced to scan the last 24 hours for potential positive things that brought small or large laughs, feelings of accomplishment at work or strength and connection with family. In just five minutes this trains the brain to become more skilled at noticing and focusing on possibilities for growth and seizing opportunities. at the same time because we only can focus on so much at once, it makes brains push out those small annoyances And frustrations that used to loom large into the background and even out of our visual field altogether.

  • When our brains constantly scam for and focus on the positive, we profit from three of the most important tools: happiness, gratitude, and optimism

To be more honest it has to be about money we are not saving the dolphins here. This executive had primed his employees for failure. Saving the dolphins was meaningful but your job provides no meaning. He reminded everyone they had jobs not callings. Even a route or routine task can be meaningful if you find a good reason to be invested. You feel productive at the end of the day. You made life easier for a client or customer. You use your skills. You learn from my mistake. You have to find meaning in your job.

Rewrite your job description as a calling description. Highlight the meaning that can be derived from it then I asked them for their own personal goals in life. How can the current tasks be connected to this larger purpose. The more we can align our daily tasks without personal vision, the more likely we are to see work as a calling. Forget about your current job title what would you like customers to call your job title if they described it by the impact you have on their lives.

Spend money, but not on stuff. Spending money on other people call prosocial spending also boosts happiness. Money can’t buy happiness but can only if used to do things as opposed to simply having things.

Exercise the signature strength each time we use a skill, We experience a bust of positivity.4
Exercise meditate rich social relationships

Happy workers have higher levels of productivity

Feeling that we are in control, is one of the greatest drivers of both well-being and performance. Tending plants and careers the importance of control.Limit your focus to small manageable goals and that’s expand your sphere of power.

Given how important control is to our success, some of us feel overwhelmed by too many demands on our time , attention and abilities. The brain has two dueling components - one a knee-jerk like a emotional system (jerk) and a rational cognitive system (thinker).

The thinkers purpose is simple : think then react.
When we are feeling stressed or out-of-control, the jerk tends to take over.When we are under pressure, the body starts to build up too much cortisol. Once the stress has reached a critical point even the smallest setback can trigger an amygdala response hitting the brains panic button. When that happens, the Jerk overpowers the Thinkers defenses. Instead of think then react we go into fight or flight. When small stress is pileup over time as they do in the workplace, it takes a minor annoyance to lose control.

So how do we reclaim control from the jerk? The answer is the Zorro circle. The first goal is Self awareness. The quickest to recover of those who can identify how do you feeling and put those feelings into words. Write it down or talk to a trusted confidant verbalizing the stress and helplessness you are feeling this is the first step toward regaining control.

Then identify which aspects of the situation you have control over and which you don’t.

Identify one small goal that you know you can quickly accomplish. By narrowing the scope of action and focusing energy and efforts the likelihood of success increases. By tackling one small challenge at a time the narrow circle slowly expands outward. We can re-learn that our actions do have a direct effect on our outcomes and that we are largely the masters of our own fates.

I once worked with the head copy writer of an advertising firm. She managed a team of eight people. She was in charge of leading the creative meetings that brainstormed ideas for each client. For her first Zorro circle she set the following goal: to improve only the copy that she herself wrote. Recommitting herself to this manageable goal. Not only helped her focus her energy is on something she could handle the best part was that once her own performance improved his circle of influence did expand. The better her writing God, the harder her team worked to follow her example. The teams improved performance soon raised the bar for other departments.

Cleaning up the subway graffiti helped New York police Reduce crime on subways.

We are mere bundles of habits. If we have to make a conscious choice about every little thing we did all day, we would be overwhelmed by breakfast.

Create daily strokes of effort. The more people perform a particular action, the more connections form between the corresponding neurons. The stronger the link, the faster the message can travel down the pathway. This is how we become skilled at an activity. The first time you try to juggle, the neural pathways involved are unused and so the message Travels slowly. The more time you juggle, the more these pathways get reinforced, so that on the eighth day of practice the electrical currents are firing at a much more rapid pace. This is when you notice the juggling comes easier , requires less concentration, and that you can do it faster .


On not practicing my guitar:
Will power is not the way . Relying on will power to completely change behavior always fails.
The reason will power is so ineffective at sustaining change is that the more we use it, the more worn out it gets.

Group1 was given chocolate chip cookies which they were told not to eat. Group 2 was given cookies but they could eat. Group 3 was given no food at all.
They were then asked to solve some simple puzzles. Groups 2&3 long outlasted Group 1 at persevering at the task.
Why? Because the students who had to use the will power to avoid eating the cookies didn’t have the will power or mental energy left to struggle with the complex puzzle.

No matter how unrelated the tasks were, they all seemed to be tapping the same fuel source
.
Many different forms of self-control draw on a common resource or self control strength, which is quite limited and hence can be depleted readily.

Unfortunately, we face a steady stream of tasks that deplete will power every single day.
Whether it’s avoiding the dessert table, staying focused on a spreadsheet for hours, or sitting still through a three hour meeting, I will power is consistently being put to the test. So it’s no wonder really that we so easily give in to our old habits, do the easiest and most comfortable path as we progress during the day.

20 Second rule
Lowering the barrier by just 20 seconds can help form a new life habit.
Removing batteries for my remote, setting up the guitar in the middle of the living room.
The more effort it takes to obtain Unhealthy food, the less we eat of it.
Remove distractions. Sleep in gym clothes.

Every additional choice people asked to make, Their physical stamina, ability and overall focus drop dramatically. Every innocuous choice depletes our energy a little further. Until we just don’t have enough to continue with the positive habit we are trying to adopt.
Eliminate choices.

The key to reducing choice Is setting and following a few simple rules.
Setting rules in advance can free us from the constant barrage of willpower depleting choices that make a real difference in our lives. Example check email just once per hour, have just one coffee break for morning. Rules are especially helpful during the first few days of a behavior changing venture.
A manager wanted to have positive interaction, he made a simple rule ofThank one of his employees every day.

We need social contact to thrive. There was only one characteristic that distinguish the happiest 10% from everyone else: the strength of the social relationships.Work friendships were overwhelmingly placed above financial gains and individual status. The people we interviewed from good to great companies love what they did largely because they loved who they did it with.
Study show that the more team members are encouraged to socialize and interact face-to-face, the more engage the field, the more energy they have, and the longer they can stay focused.
Even brief encounters can form high-quality connections. One conversation, one email exchange, one moment of connecting can infuse both participants with a greater sense of vitality, giving them a bounce in their steps and greater capacity to act.

Of all the social ties we have at work, the boss/employee relationship call the vertical couple is the single most important social bond you can cultivate at work.
How we support people during good times, more than bad times, affects the quality of relationship. The winning response to good news is both active and constructive: it offers and pull the Astec support as well as specific comments and follow-up questions. Passive responses to good news: “that’s nice “ can be just as harmful as negative ones.
Mutual respect and authenticity.
Gratitude

Reaching for the stars is a recipe for failure. Set goals of moderate difficulty. Setting smaller more manageable goals helps us build our confidence and keeps us committed to the task at hand. “don’t write a book, write a page....”

The strategy of finding and improving small problems has helped businesses flourish. A focus on tiny incremental changes leads to Mammoth results.

Training ourselves to scan the world for the positive can help us re-interpret failures as opportunities for growth.
One way to build rapport, is with iContact rapport strengthens between two people when they lock eyes.

Take an executive who has been writing down a gratitude list each night. In the morning meeting, he speaks more positives And feels compelled to praise the work of one of his reports. this primes the recipients brain with positive emotions and they can work more creatively and efficiently. The confidence to go after bigger goals comes after having achieved a goal however small.

Saturday, April 11, 2020

The best business to own is : A business that sells a product that is needed or desired, that has no close substitute and whose profits are not regulated.

The worst business to own is a commodity business where products are indistinguishable from competitors.

In order to best understand a company, you first have to understand the industry. Start by looking at 7-8 companies in an industry. You need to know what the strengths of the company are in relation to the competition and what their moat is.  If you do not know how many competitors the company has, do not invest in the company. Ask management in each company which competitor they would put their net worth into.

Event   Probability    Outcome          Expectation
A            999/1000         $1                     $0.995
B                1/1000        -$10000            -$10
                                            Total           -$9.001
(Frequency of loss by itself irrelevant, consider it in connection with the magnitude of loss)

Accommodate this urge by dividing bets into Prime Bets and Action Bets. Prime bets are made when confidence to win is high  (EV/FCF <=11). Action Bets are reserved for long shots that satisfy the psychological need to play.

What mind-ware would you need to activate System 2 thinking ? At a minimum you would read a company's annual report and the annual reports of competitors. If it appears the company has a strong competitive position with a favourable long-term outlook, you would run several dividend discount models with different growth rates of the company's owner earnings to get an approximate valuation.

Wealthy people focus on owning great assets.
We've made less mistakes focusing on earnings and cash flow rather than asset value.

Time is the friend of a wonderful business and the enemy of a poor one.

Friday, April 26, 2019

Resist distraction

This! :
https://www.bakadesuyo.com/2016/10/how-to-resist-distraction/
When the prefrontal cortex is taken offline by stress we end up doing things that are immediately pleasurable. Instead of getting overwhelmed, ask yourself, “What’s one little thing that I could do now that would move me toward this goal I’m trying to accomplish?” Taking one small step toward it can make it start to feel more manageable. 

Here’s how to resist distraction and be less reactive:

  • Control your context: You can’t react to what’s not there. (phone out of reach)
  • Stay calm: Stress makes you dumb. Stress and reacting leads to dumb behavior. (stay calm)
  • Think about your goals: Get Stoicism, mindfulness and dopamine on your side.
  • Make a deliberate decision: When you do, your brain is better able to resist no-no’s.(SCHEDULE EVERYTHING!)
You don’t have to react and answer that text immediately. You don’t have to react to that delicious smell and eat all the cookies. You can pause, stay calm, think about your goals and decide to do the right thing.
We’re all so afraid of being bored that we run to any distraction that presents itself. But when we truly engage with the world and focus on our goals, we’re never bored.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Investing Cheat sheet

My favorite bits from:  "The Ultimate Cheat Sheet For Investing by James Altucher"


So why should anyone listen to me about investing? You shouldn’t. 

The most important three words in investing is: “I don’t know”.

When you go into a job you NEVER lose money. If you show up for two weeks, you get paid. You might get fired but they won’t take your money. The stock market TAKES your money on bad days.
Sometimes it takes a lot of your money. We’re not used to the brutality of that and it can destroy a person psychologically, which makes one (me) trade even worse.

I told you about: #1. Pick some stocks and hold them forever. Since “I don’t know” applies, it’s almost impossible to pick the right ones.

E) What stocks should I hold?
( A friend of mine who knows Buffett told me my book was the only book that Buffett thought was accurate about him).
 I would add to that, based on what Warren does. It seems to me he has five criteria:
  1. A company will be around 20 years from now.
  2. At some point, company’s management has demonstrated in some way that they are honest, good people. If you can get to know management even better.
  3. The company’s stock has crashed for some reason.
  4. The company’s name is a strong brand: American Express, Coke, Disney, etc.
  5. Demographics play a strong role.

 G) SHOULD I PUT ALL OF MY MONEY IN STOCKS?

No, because you’ll never know everything about a company.

So use this guideline:
  • no more than 3% of your portfolio in any one stock.
  • no more than 30% of your portfolio in stocks 
M) WHAT ARE SOME GOOD DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS?

  1. The internet. Yes, it’s still growing.
  2.  
  3. Baby boomers retiring. They need special facilities to live in. They need better cancer diagnostics and treatments.
  4. Energy. The more people we have, the more energy we will consume. Go for energy sources that are profitable and don’t need government subsidies. Whenever you depend on the government, you could get in trouble.
  5. Temp staffing. Every company is firing people and replacing them with temp staffers.
  6. Batteries. If you can figure out how to invest in Lithium, then go for it.
G, PART 2) WHAT IF WE ARE IN A BUBBLE?
Some hedge fund manager (David Einhorn) just said we might be in a tech bubble. Back to rule #1: He doesn’t know. It’s just a headline.

Bubbles don’t mean anything. We had an internet bubble in the 90s. Then a housing bubble. And if you just held through all of that, your stock portfolio right now would be about a percent from all-time highs.
So ignore cycles and bubbles and ups and downs.

H) MY FRIEND HAS A BUSINESS IDEA. SHOULD I INVEST IN IT?
Probably not. But if you want a checklist, make sure these four boxes can be checked:
  • The CEO has started and sold a business before.
  •   The company has revenues and/or profits.
  • You are getting a really good deal. 
  • I can say this: every time I have invested with this approach it’s worked miracles. And every time I have not invested in this approach it’s been a DISASTER. 

J) WHAT ABOUT METALS AS A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION?
No, they have zero correlation with inflation. The best hedge against inflation is the US stock market since about 60% of revenues of the S&P 500 comes from foreign countries.
K) WHAT ABOUT METALS LIKE GOLD? DON’T THEY HAVE INTRINSIC VALUE?
No. But if you’re going to pick a metal, wait until the gold/silver ratio gets higher than it’s historical average and buy silver.

L) WHAT ABOUT MUTUAL FUNDS?
No. Use the criteria I describe above, pick 20 companies and invest.

O) IF NO HOUSING AND ONLY 30% OF MY PORTFOLIO IN STOCKS, THEN WHAT SHOULD I DO WITH THE REST OF MY MONEY?
Why are you in such a rush to put all of your money to work? Relax! 
Cash is a beautiful thing. You can pay for all your basic needs with it.
You can sleep at night knowing there is cash in the bank.
I love a stress-free life. When I look back, the times when I’ve been most stressed is when I’ve been heavily invested and the times when I’ve been least stressed is when I had cash in the bank.

Forget about it. And finally, write down 10-20 bad ideas a day.
Every day give the world at least one more reason to whisper “thank you” to you.

  • Say you own a painting you bought for $20K, and due to rosy conditions in the art market, it is now worth $40K. If you owned no painting, would you still acquire it at the current price?

    Wednesday, November 08, 2017

    • petesouzaPresident Obama greeting people affected by an F5 tornado in Joplin, Missouri that killed more than 100 people in 2011. “But that does not mean we are powerless in the face of adversity,” he said. “How we respond when the storm strikes is up to us. How we live in the aftermath of tragedy and heartache, that’s within our control. And it’s in these moments, through our actions, that we often see the glimpse of what makes life worth living in the first place."


    https://www.instagram.com/p/BYbL0cNFsMC/?hl=en&taken-by=petesouza

    Saturday, December 06, 2014

    1. All past market crashes are viewed as opportunities, but all future market crashes are viewed as risks.
    If you can recognize the silliness in this, you are on your way to becoming a better long-term investor.
    2. Most bubbles begin with a rational idea that gets taken to an irrational extreme.
    Dot-com companies did change the world, land is limited and precious metals can hedge against inflation. But none of these stories justified paying outlandish prices for stocks, houses or gold. Bubbles are so easy to fall for precisely because, at least in part, they are based on solid logic.
    3. “I don’t know” are three of the most underused words in investing.
    I don’t know what the market will do next month. I don’t know when interest rates will rise. I don’t know how low oil prices will go. Nobody does. Listening to people who say they do will cost you a lot of money. Alas, you can’t charge a consulting fee for humility.
    4. Short-term thinking is at the root of most investing problems.
    If you can focus on the next five years while the average investor is focused on the next five months, you have a powerful edge. Markets reward patience more than any other skill.
    5. Investing is overwhelmingly a game of psychology.
    Success has less to do with your math skills—or your relationships with in-the-know investors—and more to do with your ability to resist the emotional urge to buy high and sell low.
    6. Things change quickly—and more drastically than many think.
    Fourteen years ago, Enron was on Fortune magazine’s list of the world’s most-admired companies, Apple was a struggling niche company, Greece’s economy was booming, and the Congressional Budget Office predicted the federal government would be effectively debt-free by 2009. There is a tendency to extrapolate the recent past, but 10 years from now the business world will look absolutely nothing like it does today.
    7. Three of the most important variables to consider are the valuations of stocks when you buy them, the length of time you can stay invested, and the fees you pay to brokers and money managers.
    These three items alone will have a major impact on how you perform as an investor.
    8. There are no points awarded for difficulty.
    Nobody cares how much effort you put into researching a stock, how detailed your spreadsheet is or how complicated your options strategy is. For many people, a diversified buy-and-hold strategy is the most reasonable way to invest. Some find it boring, but the purpose of investing isn’t to reduce boredom; it is to increase wealth.
    9. A couple of times per decade, investors forget that recessions happen a couple of times per decade.
    When recessions come, stocks tend to plunge. This is an unfortunate, but perfectly normal, part of the process—like a Florida hurricane. You should get used to it. If you are unable to stomach declines, consider another investment.
    10. Don’t check your brokerage account once a day and your blood pressure only once a year.
    Constant updates make investing more emotional than it needs to be. Check your brokerage account as infrequently as necessary to prevent you from becoming emotional about market moves.
    11. You should pay the most attention to the investor who talks about his or her mistakes.
    Avoid those investors who don’t—their mistakes are likely to be worse.
    12. Change your mind when the facts change.
    Admit when you are wrong. Learn from your mistakes. Ignore those who refuse to do the same. This will save you untold investing misery.
    13. Read past stock-market predictions, and you will take current predictions less seriously.
    Markets are complicated, and human emotions are unpredictable. Unless you have illegal insider information, predicting what stocks will do in the short run is unimaginably difficult.
    14. There is no such thing as a normal economy, or a normal stock market.
    Investors have a tendency to want to “wait for things to get back to normal,” but markets and economies are almost constantly in some state of absurdity, booming or busting at rates that seem (and are) unsustainable.
    15. It can be difficult to tell the difference between luck and skill in investing.
    There are millions of investors around the world. Randomness guarantees that some will be wildly successful by pure chance. But you will rarely find an investor who attributes his success to luck. When you combine a market system that generates randomness with a belief that your actions reflect your intelligence, you get some misleading results.