From Isabel in The Right Attitude to Rain :
That woman would like to be elsewhere thought Isabel; as so many people would. How many of us are happy to be exactly where we are at the moment? Only the completely happy think that they are in the correct place.

Never heard it put so well. Iam extremely happy :)

Why we need a recession -- soon
By Jon Markman
Check out the pessimistic housing headlines. When there's this much smoke, usually there is not just fire but a raging hell storm about to be cut loose. And Lord knows, there's much dry tinder available to the forces of financial doom, what with residential construction stopped cold, Detroit automakers idling and virtually the entire financial-services work force dusting off resumes.

So is the inferno really upon us? Well, no. And that's a pity because recessions clear out the excess optimism, debt and inventory that collect during long stretches of expansion. Moreover, a recession delayed may be a recession that turns into a real whopper.
Banking analyst Richard Bove points out that debt in the U.S. economy over the past 5 years has grown at a pace 3 times faster than income. Nominal gross-domestic-product growth has advanced at 3% while financial debt has grown at a 9.7% clip to $13.8 trillion.
As consumers collectively quit spending, retailers see inventories pile up, manufacturers fire workers, unemployment explodes and wage growth collapses.

Just as heroin dealers are in business to sell drugs, banks are in business to make loans. Their financial engineers will do everything in their power to force debt down consumers' throats.

Because the administration in Washington knows that if all those loans are called in and consumers can't make good on them, there will be hell to pay. And a nasty recession just won't do in an election year.
So the government is in the process of twisting the arms of Fed members to lower interest rates. That will allow banks to go back to one of their favorite recession-delaying ploys: encouraging debt-strapped consumers to refinance their loans at lower rates.

Banks took big write-downs this past October.
Investors will let them get away with that sort of rudeness only once. If the banks do it again -- shareholders are likely to slaughter the bank stocks, pushing them down at least another 20%.
"Bad loans are going onto their balance sheet faster than they can write them off," he said.
Once investors determine that the banks' bad loans are out of control and that the risk cannot be adequately measured, they will sell first and ask questions later. So, we are about to enter even more interesting times. A debt-led recession punctuated with joblessness and foreclosure is almost certainly en route. The only questions are whether it comes early next year or in 2009, and how deep a hole we'll need to dig for the burial. Whatever the timing or depth, continue to avoid the bank and brokerage stocks.

Fine print One of the first groups of companies to go in a recession: restaurants that serve the upper middle class. Recent victims include McCormick & Schmick's (MSSR, news, msgs) and P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB, news, msgs).

Strangely, some stocks tend to do well in a recession, including REITs, insurance companies and, for some reason, containerboard makers. Also keep in mind that the best time to buy stocks for the long term is right smack in the middle of a recession, so you will want to start buying the banks and home builders once their currently hidden problems are more fully reflected in their stock prices. For more on the banks' issues, read my Sept. 14 column, "What the big banks aren't telling you -- yet."

Samuel Johnson quotes this time..

• A fly may sting a stately horse and make him wince; but one is but an insect, and the other is a horse still.
• A wise man will make haste to forgive, because he knows the true value of time, and will not suffer it to pass away in unnecessary pain.
• Books like friends, should be few and well-chosen.
• Curiosity is one of the most permanent and certain characteristics of a vigorous intellect.
• Where there is nothing but pure misery there never is any recourse to the mention of it.
• Every man who attacks my belief, diminishes in some degree my confidence in it, and therefore makes me uneasy; and I am angry with him who makes me uneasy.
• Getting money is not all a man's business: to cultivate kindness is a valuable part of the business of life.
• I look upon every day to be lost, in which I do not make a new acquaintance.
• If a man does not make new acquaintances as he advances through life, he will soon find himself left alone.
• It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
• Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome.
• Poverty is a great enemy to human happiness; it certainly destroys liberty, and it makes some virtues impracticable.
• Self-confidence is the first requisite to great undertakings.
• The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good.
• Those who attain any excellence, commonly spend life in one pursuit; for excellence is not gained upon easier terms.
• To be happy at home is the ultimate result of all ambition.
• We are inclined to believe those whom we do not know because they have never deceived us.
• What is easy is seldom excellent.
• What we hope ever to do with ease, we must learn first to do with diligence.
• Worth seeing? Yes; but not worth going to see.
• You can't be in politics unless you can walk in a room and know in a minute who's for you and who's against you.
• You hesitate to stab me with a word, and know not - silence is the sharper sword.

Confucius quotes

• "The strength of a nation derives from the integrity of the home."
• "The superior man is distressed by the limitations of his ability; he is not by the fact that men do not recognize the ability that he has."
• "The superior man is modest in his speech, but exceeds in his actions."
• "Never contract friendship with a man that is not better than thyself."
  "The wheel of fortune turns round incessantly, and who can say if I shall today be uppermost."
• "To be wronged is nothing unless you continue to remember it."
• "It does not matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop."
• "Instead of being concerned that you have no office, be concerned to think how you may fit yourself for office.
• "To know, is to know that you know nothing. That is true knowledge."
• "Five things constitute perfect virtue; gravity, generosity of soul, sincerity, earnestness, and kindness."
• "The cautious seldom err."
• "Silence is a true friend who never betrays."
• "Everything has beauty, but not everyone sees it."
• "Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life."
• "When anger rises, think of the consequences."
• "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
• "The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come.

Loath to leave the company, enjoying current visibility enormously. Feels good to work on projects that are wanted and cared about so much. First time working on highly visible projects and hope it lasts.

Buffett said that he had read Graham and Dodd's book many times and had even read it to his wife on their honeymoon in 1952.
"It might not seem romantic, but I felt she ought to read it," Buffett recalled.

Follow Your Bliss by Van Tharp
Author Joseph Campbell described the message of “follow your bliss” to be his ultimate teaching. It’s like a message from God. If you do what you love to do, then you are probably doing what the universe intends for you to do.
A few years ago I had a client who wanted to start trading. He still needed trading capital. Instead, he was busy building a house and investing all his time into that house.
I suggested that he meditate on —what he loved to do and what he was attached to in his life. Did he love his house so much that he was willing to spend the next 20 years at a job he hated just to pay for it? If you don’t love what you do, you’ll face stress and possible burnout. If you love what you do, then you’ll have the energy and excitement to make what you want a reality.

Quiet your mind and let your thoughts come and go. Afterwards write down a list of all of the things/activities you really love. What really turns you on?

Then make a list of the things to which you are attached-things really important to you. Now, notice if there are any of your attachments that are so important that you would be willing to make you spend 20 years of your life doing something you hate.

Beautiful article in WSJ : The Secrets of Intangible Wealth by Ronald Bailey

A Mexican migrant is five times more productive in the US than he is back home. Why is that ?
According to some remarkable but largely ignored research - by the World Bank, of all places - it is because the average American has access to $418,000 of intangible wealth, while the stay-at-home Mexican's intangible wealth is just $34,000. But what is intangible wealth and how is it measured ? Two years ago, World Bank set out to assess the contributions of various kinds of capital to economic development. Its study "Where is the Wealth of Nations ? Measuring capital for the 21st century", began by defining natural capital as the sum of nonrenewable resources and produced or built capital as sum of machinery, infrastructure etc. But once the value of all these are added, the economists found something big was missing : The vast majority of the world's wealth!

The rest of the result of the "intangible factors"-such as the trust among people in a society, an efficient judicial system, clear property rights and effective government. All this intangible capital also boosts productivity and results in higher total wealth. 80% of wealth in rich countries and 60% in poor countries is of this intangible type. What the World bank economists have done brilliantly is to quantify the intangible value of education and social institutions. The bottom line : "Rich countries are largely rich because of the skills of their populations and the quality of the institutions supporting economic activity." The rule of law accounts for 57% and education accounts for 36% of intangible capital. Switzerland scored 99.5 on the rule-of-law index while the US scored 91. By contrast Nigeria's score on this is 5.8. Overall the average per capita wealth in the OECD countries is $440,000, consisting of $10,000 in natural capital, $76,000 in produced capital and a whopping $360,000 in intangible capital. Low income countries in contrast have $7,216 per person. Consists of $2,075 in natural capital. $1,150 in produced capital and $3,991 in intangible capital. Through rampant corruption, some are destroying their intangible capital and ensuring that their people will be poorer in the future. Who wouldn't walk across the border in such circumstances?

The World bank study bolsters the deep insights pf the late development economist Paul Bauer. In his brilliant "Dissent on Development" Bauer wrote : If all conditions for development other than capital are present, capital will soon be generated... If however the conditions for development are not present, then aid will be necessarily unproductive and therefore ineffective. Thus if mainsprings of development are present, material progress will occur even without foreign aid. If they are absent, then it will not occur even with aid. This path breaking study demonstrates that the mainsprings of development are the rule of law and a good school system. The big unanswered question is : How can people rid themselves of the kleptocrats who loot their countries and keep them poor?

Buffett went on to stress the importance of temperament when it comes to investing, saying: “Independent thinking, emotional stability and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behaviour is vital to long-term investment success.”

The Rule of 72

The 'Rule of 72' is a simple way to calculate the number of years to double your money : divide 72 by your annual returns and the number of years it takes your money to double follows.

So, if you expect an annual return of 12%, it takes 6 years to double your money (72 / 12 = 6). You can also calculate the 'required return': Divide 72 by the number of years. If you have 10 years to double your money, you need 72 /10 = 7.2%. Only 5 years? Your required annual return would be 72 /5 = 14.4.

From Bertrand Russell's "In Praise of Idleness". Would not survive without his writings.

There will be happiness and joy of life, instead of frayed nerves, weariness, and dyspepsia. Originality will be unhampered, and there will be no need to conform. Ordinary men and women, having the opportunity of a happy life, will become more kindly and less persecuting and less inclined to view others with suspicion. Good nature is, of all moral qualities, the one that the world needs most, and good nature is the result of ease and security, not of a life of arduous struggle. Hitherto we have continued to be as energetic as before machines; we have been foolish.

Charles Ellis

From Charles Ellis's book "Winning the Loser's Game", this book was actually written for professional money managers :

• In a loser's game, the outcome is determined by the mistakes made by the loser.
• In amateur tennis, the victor gets a higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.
• So staying back, and keeping the ball in -- is good strategy for amateur tennis players.
• Focus on not making mistakes.
• Regression to the mean is too powerful.
• Despite the enticing appeal of reducing market exposure by astute sales when the securities appear to be overpriced and boldly reinvesting when prices have declined to attractive low levels, market timing does not work.
• So much of the "action" occurs in such brief periods and at times when we are captives of conventional consensus.
• Taking out the 10 best days from a 5 year period, reduced the return from 18% to 12%.
• Impossible to know when the "best" days will occur.
• Better to stay invested waiting for the "best" days rather than miss out.
• So, say the "long-termers", stay invested through the rough times, that's the only sane ways to make sure you're there for the good times!
• Unfortunately, security analysis, does not appear to be a useful or profitable activity. Stocks that investment managers sell after doing fundamental research , and the stocks they don't buy, typically do as well as the stocks they do buy.
• Problem is that security analysis is done so very well by so many.
• You can do more for your portfolio by developing and sustaining wise long-range policies than by skillful manipulations of the individual holdings within the portfolio.
• Time is Archimedes' lever in investing
• Give a portfolio time to evolve.
• Sell when you want to, not when you have to.
• If the time period is long, the wise investor can commit without great anxiety to investments that in the short run appear to be very risky.
• Time transforms investments from least attractive to most attractive.
• 3 types of risks : Price risk (price paid), interest rate risk, business risk (business failure).
• The central fact about both stock group risk and individual stock risk is that "they do not need to be accepted" by the investor. They can be eliminated. Risk that comes from investing in particular market segments or specific issues can be diversified away - to oblivion.
• The great secret for success in long-term investing is to avoid serious losses.
• POLICY is the MOST EFFECTIVE ANTIDOTE to PANIC.
• If a major decision is truly fiduciary in nature, it never needs to be done quickly. Time urgent decisions are never fiduciary.
• The long, sad history of market timing is clear: Virtually nobody gets it right even half the time. And cost of getting it wrong wipes out the occasional gain of getting it right.
• If you find yourself caught up in the excitement or a rising market or distressed by a falling market, STOP. Break it off. Go for a walk and cool down.
• When you feel euphoric, you are probably in for a bruising.
• When you feel down, remember its darkest hour before dawn- and take no action.
• The secret to long-term success is benign neglect.
• Leave compounding alone to do its good work for you.
• Most of our blunders are emotional, not computational. How your investments behave is beyond your control. But how you behave in response to fluctuations is within your control.

From one of my favorite books "John Neff on investing" :

• If we shared a compartment on a long train ride, what you read here is what I would tell you about investing.
• Individuals enjoy a key advantage over professionals, you can pick and choose and bide your time unflustered by the fierce and corrosive quarterly performance sweepstakes.
• Value investing demands sober reflection. Scarce to begin with, and even scarcer in bull markets.
• Now and then a windfall, but mostly a trudge. If you're in too big a hurry, a mattress may be better to store your money.
• I attribute success not to genius or blinding insights, but to a frugal nature and lessons well-learned.
• The more I delve into the past, the more I see lessons that ultimately played out in my choice of career. Perseverance, sympathy for the woebegone, frugality, stubbornness, and integrity, together with an inclination to flout convention and a penchant for rigorous analysis-these qualities form the building blocks for a successful investment strategy.
• Shortcuts usually grease the rails to disappointing outcomes.
• Bargain shopping made an impression on me. I've never bought a stock unless it was on sale.
• I was probably not the easiest of sons to deal with, but he was a difficult man. Over the slightest infractions, he harangued people who worked for him. His behavior did not fit my definition of civility. Though ethical and honest, he was extremely demanding and especially sympathetic. To some degree, I inherited his tendency to be demanding. But my father was not very happy, and bitterness added sting to his demands.
• The capacity of investors to believe in something too good to be true seems almost infinite at times.
• We followed one durable investment style whether the market was up, down or indifferent. (Low P/E, Growth excess of 7%, Yield protection, Solid companies in growing fields, Strong fundamental case)
• You don't need stunning growth rates. Absent stunning growth rates, low P/E stocks can capture the wonders of P/E expansion with less risk than skittish growth stocks.An increase in the P/E ration coupled with improved earnings, turbocharges the appreciation potential. e.g. (Static P/E : EPS - $2, Market price - $26, P/E - 13, Growth - 11%, Expected earnings - $2.22, New P/E - 13, New Market price - $28.86, Appreciation potential - 11% VS Expanded P/E : EPS - $2, Market price - $16, P/E - 8, Growth rate - 11%, Expected Earnings - $2.22, New P/E - 11, New Market price - $24.42, Appreciation potential - 53%)
• Windsor was not fancy. As in tennis, I tried to keep the ball in play and let my adversaries make the mistakes. I picked stocks with low p/e multiples primed to be upgraded in the market if they were deserving, and endeavored to keep losers at break-even levels.
• For Windsor's purposes, a low p/e multiple usually languished 40-60% below the prevailing market multiples.
• Low p/e companies growing faster than 7% a year tipped us off to underappreciated signs of life, particularly if accompanied by an attention-getting dividend.
• When news circluates that a company has missed an earnings estimate, it is normally compared to a consensus. If the company's fundamentals remain strong, low p/e investors often recognize buying opportunities.
  
  

The Tao of Buffett.

• The smarter the journalists are, the better off society is.
• My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror. (Has a history of standing alone that dates back to the early days of his investments.)
• Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule number 1. (Apparently he drove an old VW beetle long after being a multimillionaire. Didn't know that)
• You can' make a good deal with a bad person. (If you even have to ask yourself if you trust somebody, you should immediately leave the negotiating table and look for more honest company to do business with)
• If is easier to stay out of trouble than get out of trouble.
• It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.
• My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror.(Not one to seek affirmation from others, because so many of his ideas are opposite from what the herd is thinking.To make big money you have to be comfortable standing alone)
• With each investment you make, you should have the courage and conviction to place at least 10% of your net worth in that stock.
• Accounting is the language of business. (When Warren was asked by the daughter of one of his business associates what courses to take in college, he replied "Accounting - it is the language of business")
• Read Graham and Fisher, read annual reports but don't do equations with Greek letters in the them.
• There comes a time when you ought to start doing what you want. Take a job that you love. You will jump out of bed in the morning. I think you are out of your mind if you keep taking jobs that you don' like because you think it will look good on your resume.
• The business schools reward difficult, complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.
• There is nothing like writing to force you to think and get your thoughts straight.(If you can't write about it, you haven't really thought about it).
• The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.
• A person's main asset is themselves, so preserve and enhance yourself.
• In the search for companies to acquire, we adopt the same attitude one might find appropriate in looking for a spouse: It pays to be active, interested, and open-minded, but it does not pay to be in a hurry.
• We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
• If you don't make mistakes, you can't make decisions.
• If you understand an idea, you can express it so others can understand it.
• If they need my help to manage the enterprise, we are probably both in trouble.
• At the beginning, prices are driven by fundamentals, and at some point, speculation drives them. What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.
• The smartest side to take in a bidding war is the losing side.
• Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be mis-appraised.
• Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.
• We do not have and never will have an opinion on where the market, interest rates or business activity will be in a year from now.
• That which is not worth doing is not worth doing well.
• I buy stocks when the lemmings are headed the other way.
• You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong.(Warren decided early in his investing career that it would be impossible for him to make hundreds of right investment decisions, so he decided only to invest in businesses he was absolutely sure of and then bet heavily on them).

In the short run the market is like a voting machine and in the long run it is a weighing machine. Just really understood this today. The weighing machine is never wrong! So in the long term, the market will get it right. From Joel Greenblatt:

• Over the short term, Mr Market acts like a wildly emotional guy who can buy and sell businesses at highly depressed or highly inflated prices.
• Over the long run, Mr Market gets it right.

So if do have bad stocks, be scared that Mr Market will get it right soon enough. :(

Kelly criterion and probability, stock will go down after purchase

• Answer: People overweight the most recent information. They overreact to dramatic information, or dramatic circumstances. They tend to have what's called outcome bias, which is they judge things on their outcome, and not on their process.
• Question: What's the Kelly criterion?
  Answer: What it tells you is what fraction of your bank roll you should commit to any particular probabilistic endeavor, if you know the probabilities that pertain to it. And if you know those preconditions, you will either maximize your bankroll at the fastest possible rate, or you'll minimize your loss at the slowest possible rate.
  The rough formula, is:
  2p - 1
  where p is the probability [converted from percentage to decimal form]. So, to make it easy, if you were 100% certain that a particular investment would pay off at your expected rate, then 2 times that p is 2.0, minus 1, yields 1. That means 100% of your bankroll should go into that investment.
  Now if you were only 60% sure, then it would be two times .60, which is 1.20, minus 1, equals .20. So 20% of your bankroll should go into that proposition.
  It also shows that if you have less than a 50/50 proposition, you shouldn't bet at all. Which again, makes perfect sense.
• You have to be confident that you have an edge, And if you can't identify that edge, you probably don't have it. And if you can't identify it, you probably shouldn't commit the capital to it.
• Answer: I would advise them basically to understand, A) people are overconfident, B) that therefore whatever probability you think you have of being right, it's probably less than you think. If you think you have a small edge, you probably don't have any edge at all.
• You know, Bernard Baruch said nobody buys at the bottom and sells at the top except for liars. So what follows from that is, if you're not buying at the bottom and selling at the top, then that stock will go down after you bought it. And it will go up after you sold it.
• Answer: Right. So you need to understand that your stock will go down after you buy it, and it will go up after you sell it. But what you want it to do is go down immediately after you bought it, and be lower then. You don't want it to be lower three years, or five years, or ten years. If you understand this, then the strategy of being willing to lower your average cost [by buying more when a stock drops] is a great strategy.
• Question: I have a theory that great investors are not unemotional, but inversely emotional: They get worried when the market is making most people happy, and they feel good when everyone else is worried about it. Ben Graham had that quality, and so does Warren Buffett. Do you see that in yourself?
• Answer: [veteran trader] Richard Dennis got these 10 people he was going to teach how to trade according to his system. And the system was mechanical. There was no judgment involved. And as it turned out, that after two months of trading, he was the only one of the 10 people that actually followed the system.
• And the reason was, all these behavioral things. Because the system showed you lots of losses. And then it would tend to show you big gains. The losses made people nervous, and so the whole point of the book is that Dennis actually had understood or internalized, that there was a whole plethora of behavioral anomalies that will keep people from behaving optimally in capital markets.
• Can an individual investor do what you've done - beat the market for years ?
  Answer: Oh, sure. I think that individuals [are not hampered by the obstacles] that prevent many professionals from behaving in optimal ways.
  And, more importantly, a thoughtful individual investor doing a moderate amount of homework can easily do better than the S&P 500.
  Because that portfolio which is diversified, is just allowed to evolve. They just let the portfolio evolve over time.

"It's much harder to be the guy, the guy losing money three hundred and sixty-four days out of three hundred and sixty-five,because you start questioning yourself. Am I ever going to make it back? Am I really right? What if it takes ten years? Will I even be sane ten years from now?"

Here is what I bought "The Night of the Generals" for :

• "There's a sort of brotherhood which isn't dependent on the accident of blood relationship and has nothing in common with the herd instinct. I drink to the brotherhood of reasonable men"
• "To train a man in blind obedience is tantamount to fostering stupidity. It has nothing to do with leadership. An attempt to inculcate culture and knowledge, on the other hand, presupposes culture and knowledge on the part of the teacher. Building up an army must be a mental process. If you are training a soldier to preserve peace you must train him to be a human being"
• "A general knows that in war-time he must be prepared to take this hardest of decisions unflinchingly. That being so, he has no choice but to approach his task with profound humility. He must be fully aware of his special relationship to the highest price a human being can pay"

Also thought of "Letters from Iwo Jima" when reading this. Helpless to think of jawans under control of ruthless stupid men. How do these ever become generals? Are we a stupid race overall to allow the worst of men to be our leaders? Why is stupidity and cruelty so pervasive?
Salivating over BAC and C. Why didn't I buy LYO after reading the round table ?! Lost a good opportunity. Another decent one seems KAMN. Went to jazzercise today.

To be happy at home is the desired result of all ambition. - Samuel Johnson.

Hmm, no need for more ambition from me, Iam already happy as a lark at home :) Now if only that WFMI would go up.. that would be perfect!

Inner Game of Tennis quotes

Federer definitely has the Inner Game but Nadal should have won today, he was the better player to watch.

Quotes from the Inner Game of Tennis

• Conscious trying often produces negative results.
• The best players know that their peak performance never comes when they're thinking about it.
• "Getting it together" requires slowing the mind. Quieting the mind means less thinking, calculating, judging,worrying, fearing, trying, regretting or hoping. One should try and increase the frequency of quieting the mind.
• When we unlearn how to be judgemental, it is possible to achieve spontaneous, concentrated play.
• But who said that Iam to be measured by how well I do things? In fact, who said that I should be measured at all? Who indeed? The value of a human being cannot be measured by performance.
• As long as Self 1 (the conscious self- teller) is ignorant of the true capabilties of Self2(doer), he is likely to mistrust it. This causes him to try too hard, self-condemn and be judgemental. Trust yourself instead.
• Relaxation produces smooth strokes and results from accepting your strokes even if they are erratic
• Perhaps a better way to describe a player who is "unconscious" is by saying that his mind is so concentrated, so focused, that it is still.

From this article on non-conformists, fear same for Tulip :

Then there was my daughter, who was dressed in a demure skirt and blouse. A stranger would never have picked her out as a potential rebel; if anything, she has always been determined not to stand out.

My daughter, who, underneath her shy and somewhat diffident exterior, has always harbored the soul of an iconoclast. While I am volubly contrarian, she has always quietly done her own thing. The truth is, I am of mixed minds about having handed on the mantle of dissent to my daughter. I worry that her instinct to think for herself is as much a curse as a blessing — that she will, end up standing warily on the sidelines.

So although I admire my freethinking daughter, I also feel anxious on her account. My hope is that her idiosyncratic take on the world will lead her to unexpected places rather than to an embittered outlook. Here was a girl who eschewed getting smashed and hooking up.Far safer to bet that she’d get with the program in her own laggardly time and unlemminglike way.