Black Swan :
-Iam skeptical about confirmation, not about disconfirmation. A single instance can disconfirm even though plenty of data can confirm.
-I worry less about small failures, more about large, potential ones.
-I worry less about advertised and senstaional risks, more about vicious hidden ones. I worry less about terrorism than diabetes.
-I do not worry a lot, I try to worry about matters I can do something about.
-I try to stay light on my feet, reduce my surprises, I want to be broadly right than precisely wrong.
-Every morning the world appears more random than it did the day before.
-Someone who is marginally better can easily win the entire pot, leaving the others with nothing.
-A person can get slightly ahead for entirely random reasons, and everyone flocks to him. The world of contagion is so underestimated.
-In academia, cliques of people who quote one another are formed. Those who got a good push in the beginning of their scholarly careers will keep getting persistent cumulative advantages throughout life.
-Of the 500 largest US companies in 1957, only 74 were still part of S&P500, forty years later. Most shrank or went bust.
Chapter 13
What you should avoid is unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions-those and only those.
-Maximize the serendipity around you.
-
-Iam skeptical about confirmation, not about disconfirmation. A single instance can disconfirm even though plenty of data can confirm.
-I worry less about small failures, more about large, potential ones.
-I worry less about advertised and senstaional risks, more about vicious hidden ones. I worry less about terrorism than diabetes.
-I do not worry a lot, I try to worry about matters I can do something about.
-I try to stay light on my feet, reduce my surprises, I want to be broadly right than precisely wrong.
-Every morning the world appears more random than it did the day before.
-Someone who is marginally better can easily win the entire pot, leaving the others with nothing.
-A person can get slightly ahead for entirely random reasons, and everyone flocks to him. The world of contagion is so underestimated.
-In academia, cliques of people who quote one another are formed. Those who got a good push in the beginning of their scholarly careers will keep getting persistent cumulative advantages throughout life.
-Of the 500 largest US companies in 1957, only 74 were still part of S&P500, forty years later. Most shrank or went bust.
Chapter 13
What you should avoid is unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions-those and only those.
-Maximize the serendipity around you.
-
