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Sunday, September 07, 2014



Very nice interview at  Q&A With Guy Spier Of Aquamarine Capital :

My excerpts:

  1. What company have you owned the past that was the most surprising to you? (In prospect or in retrospect)
I think that many have surprised me in one direction or another, but one of the more memorable was Duff and Phelps Credit rating - which I purchased in the mid-1990's at a 7 Price to Earnings ratio. The company proceeded to increase in value by seven times over 2-3 years before being purchased by Fimalac, the owner of Fitch. I had expected the stock to double, but I did not understand that I had purchased a super high quality business with a manager who was committed to devoting every cent of free cash, which was in excess of reported earnings, to repurchasing shares.
  1. Which rule(s) of your checklist would surprise average investors the most, if any?
I actually think that none of them would. They are common sense items that anyone would look over and say, "yes - that makes obvious sense". What is key is not that they are surprising, but that in the wrong state of mind, I might easily skip over a particular factor in evaluating an investment.
  1. Would you advise young people to get a CFA charter or an MBA or is there a better way to become an investor?
I don't think that either is necessary in order to become a good investor. Attending the Berkshire Hathaway meetings, studying Warren Buffett and reading the Berkshire Annual Reports, along with Poor Charlie's Almanack are an absolute necessity, in my view.
  1. What would you say is the most common mistake that value investors make? Does this matter if the value investor is amateur or professional?
I think that all-too-often, we feel like we are forced to take a decision. Amateur investors, investing their own money, have a huge advantage in this over the professionals. When you are a professional, there is a whole system of oversight that is constantly saying, "What have you done for me lately!" or in baseball terminology, "Swing you fool!"
Amateur investors who are investing unlevered funds that they don't need any time soon have no such pressures.
  1. Financial companies are usually a big part of the portfolio of value investors, because they seem cheap to industrials and utilities. But every now and then financials wipe out in a credit crisis. Why don't many value investors pay attention to credit conditions?
Yes, that's absolutely true. And yes, value investors probably pay far too little attention to the credit cycle. In my case, I think that I was utterly convinced that my stocks were sufficiently cheap, such that I could invest without regard to financial cycles. But I learned my lesson big time in 2008 when I was down a lot. I now subscribe to Grant's Interest Rate Observer so as to help me track the credit cycle.
  1. How do you balance keeping an independent view versus interacting with respected professional friends who have their views?
I try to switch off, or distance myself from people who I think communicate in a way that is not productive for me. The key is to have the kind of discourse that allows other people to come to their own conclusion. Asking open ended questions and not telling someone what to do are important aspects of that. When I come across people who do that, I try to build closer relationships with them. If they don't I might still keep them in my circle, but I would not allow myself to interact with them too often - because I don't want to be swayed.
  1. How do you feel about quantitative value investors?
If you mean to use statistical methods to uncover value, Ben Graham style, then I'm all for it. That is what I did when I created my Japan basket. That said, I found it hard and monotonous work. Monotonous because, in the case of Japan it did not lead to greater knowledge or wisdom about the world, because there was a limit on the degree to which I could drill down.