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Saturday, August 01, 2009

Points from Klarman's "The Value Of Not Being Sure"


  • Financial markets are manic and best thought of as an erratic counterparty rather than as an arbiter of the accuracy of one's investment judgements.
  • Historically, little volume transacts at the bottom or on the way back up and competition from other buyers will be much greater when the markets settle down and the economy begins to recover. Moreover the price recovery from a bottom can be very swift. Therefore, an investor should put money to work amidst the throes of a bear market, appreciating that things will likely get worse before they get better.
  • Process, Not Outcome :The only things one can really control are investment philosophy, investment process and the nature of clients. Controlling your process is absolutely crucial to long-term success in any market environment/.
  • James Montier, recently pointed out that when athletes were asked what went through their minds just before competing, the consistent response was a focus on process, not outcome.
  • Success virtually requires that a process be in place that enables intellectual honesty, rigor, creativity and integrity.