Put beautifully as always by Buffett.
TORONTO (Reuters) - But he warned that the U.S. dollar will continue to slide unless the country can rein in its yawning trade deficit -- the "biggest factor" behind the decline. Still, he said, the U.S. economy will "do very well over time."
Buffett, appeared to see irony in the fact that many of the banks who marketed complex investments which have now crashed are bearing much of the fallout.
"It's sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end".
Buffett said that the turmoil that has rocked the U.S. economy in recent months has imbued the markets with a healthy degree of caution, while the rate-cutting response from central bankers has ensured that cheap money remains available for borrowing.
"I wouldn't quite call it a credit crunch. Funds are available," Buffett said during a question and answer session. "Money is available, and it's really quite cheap because of the lowering of rates that has taken place."
He added: "What has happened is a repricing of risk and an unavailability of what I might call 'dumb money,' of which there was plenty around a year ago."
PBTS RULES Buffett tends to favor companies with relatively simple businesses, strong management, consistent earnings, good returns on equity, and little debt.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Hilarious article in the LA times today..
Perhaps a bit too stimulated - Joel Stein
The government should not be in charge of the economy. The government is super-insecure and desperate to be liked. So when the government senses you might blame it for something -- such as the fact that you spent $1 million on a three-bedroom house, and now you owe a ridiculous $1 million for a lousy three-bedroom house -- it panics and sends you a small check in the mail. No reasonable person would give us more money after what we've done with ours. They would tell us to put some cash in the bank and stop using the AmEx to make every appliance in our house either flat or made of stainless steel, as if we were preparing to trap "Superman II" villains.
But the government doesn't want us to bank that money. It believes we will spend the money, and that will make our houses worth a lot again. We would then buy clothes at Bebe, and the person who owns Bebe would buy the crappy house I overpaid for and get me out of the financial predicament. This might soften the recession if Milton Friedman hadn't proved 50 years ago that most people base spending decisions on long-term income projections. Unless we find a new bubble to invest in we're not going to spend our way out of this recession. We got here for the same reason people always get in trouble : We got over-excited. We ignored centuries of data saying real estate is a worse investment than stocks, and instead based our investment strategy on the fact that our neighbor just sold his house for a serious ton of money. We need to prevent our government from going deeper into debt, thus further devaluing our currency. So homeowners need to accept that they're not moving into a bigger house in three years, stock owners have to learn that their portfolios are going down for a while, and large tech companies have to stop paying hundreds of millions for social networking sites that kids get sick of after a while. An empire that believes spending is a patriotic act is perilously close to its end. But at least we will have left future civilizations the invention of the 10-year interest-only adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgage.
Perhaps a bit too stimulated - Joel Stein
The government should not be in charge of the economy. The government is super-insecure and desperate to be liked. So when the government senses you might blame it for something -- such as the fact that you spent $1 million on a three-bedroom house, and now you owe a ridiculous $1 million for a lousy three-bedroom house -- it panics and sends you a small check in the mail. No reasonable person would give us more money after what we've done with ours. They would tell us to put some cash in the bank and stop using the AmEx to make every appliance in our house either flat or made of stainless steel, as if we were preparing to trap "Superman II" villains.
But the government doesn't want us to bank that money. It believes we will spend the money, and that will make our houses worth a lot again. We would then buy clothes at Bebe, and the person who owns Bebe would buy the crappy house I overpaid for and get me out of the financial predicament. This might soften the recession if Milton Friedman hadn't proved 50 years ago that most people base spending decisions on long-term income projections. Unless we find a new bubble to invest in we're not going to spend our way out of this recession. We got here for the same reason people always get in trouble : We got over-excited. We ignored centuries of data saying real estate is a worse investment than stocks, and instead based our investment strategy on the fact that our neighbor just sold his house for a serious ton of money. We need to prevent our government from going deeper into debt, thus further devaluing our currency. So homeowners need to accept that they're not moving into a bigger house in three years, stock owners have to learn that their portfolios are going down for a while, and large tech companies have to stop paying hundreds of millions for social networking sites that kids get sick of after a while. An empire that believes spending is a patriotic act is perilously close to its end. But at least we will have left future civilizations the invention of the 10-year interest-only adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgage.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Wonderful article in the Washington Post today by the Nickel and Dimed author.
While fortunes were being made in the time it takes to say "IPO," my $6-$8-an-hour co-workers lunched on hot dog buns because that was all they could afford and, in some cases, fretted about whether they could find a safe place to sleep.
We like to attribute our high productivity to technological advances and better education. But a revealing 2001 study by McKinsey & Co. also credited America's productivity growth to "managerial . . . innovations" and cited Wal-Mart as a model performer, meaning that our productivity also relies on fiendish schemes to extract more work for less pay. Yes, you can generate more output per apparent hour of work by falsifying time records, speeding up assembly lines, doubling workloads and cutting back on breaks. That may look good from the top, but at the middle and the bottom, it can feel a lot like pain.
The old liberal certainty was that "full employment" would create a workers' paradise, with higher wages and bargaining power for the little guy and gal. What the liberals weren't counting on was a depressed minimum wage, weak unions and a witch's brew of management strategies to hold wages and salaries down.
I could see this when I was doing research for a book on white-collar unemployment in 2004. I met laid-off people who'd been searching for a job for over a year and ended up taking low-wage work as big-box sales clerks or even janitors.
A century ago, Henry Ford realized that his company would only prosper if his own workers earned enough to buy Fords. But, too many of our employers today haven't figured out that their cruelly low wages would eventually curtail their own growth and profits.
While fortunes were being made in the time it takes to say "IPO," my $6-$8-an-hour co-workers lunched on hot dog buns because that was all they could afford and, in some cases, fretted about whether they could find a safe place to sleep.
We like to attribute our high productivity to technological advances and better education. But a revealing 2001 study by McKinsey & Co. also credited America's productivity growth to "managerial . . . innovations" and cited Wal-Mart as a model performer, meaning that our productivity also relies on fiendish schemes to extract more work for less pay. Yes, you can generate more output per apparent hour of work by falsifying time records, speeding up assembly lines, doubling workloads and cutting back on breaks. That may look good from the top, but at the middle and the bottom, it can feel a lot like pain.
The old liberal certainty was that "full employment" would create a workers' paradise, with higher wages and bargaining power for the little guy and gal. What the liberals weren't counting on was a depressed minimum wage, weak unions and a witch's brew of management strategies to hold wages and salaries down.
I could see this when I was doing research for a book on white-collar unemployment in 2004. I met laid-off people who'd been searching for a job for over a year and ended up taking low-wage work as big-box sales clerks or even janitors.
A century ago, Henry Ford realized that his company would only prosper if his own workers earned enough to buy Fords. But, too many of our employers today haven't figured out that their cruelly low wages would eventually curtail their own growth and profits.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
TAX REPORT By TOM HERMAN
High Earners Face Surge in Tax Audits
The IRS is turning up the heat on high-income taxpayers, especially those who work for themselves. IRS officials say audits of taxpayers making $100,000 or more rose 14% last year from 2006. Recent IRS data also show a 29% increase in audits of people making $200,000 or more -- and an 84% surge in audits of those with incomes of $1 million or more.
IRS research indicates much of the tax-noncompliance is committed by self-employed workers, such as consultants and small-business owners, whose taxes aren't withheld from their pay and whose income isn't reported separately to the government. By contrast, compliance is much higher among people whose pay is reported by their employers and whose taxes are withheld from their pay.
This year, "we will continue to focus on audits of high-income individuals," Linda Stiff, the IRS's acting commissioner, said in an interview. She also says IRS agents are intensifying their focus on "abusive" tax shelters, loosely defined as transactions with no real business purpose other than to avoid taxes.
In addition, agents have increased audits of taxpayers involved in partnerships and businesses organized as "S corporations." With a typical S corporation, income isn't taxed at the corporate level. Instead, profits and losses flow through to shareholders, who are supposed to pay taxes at their own individual rates.
For the vast majority of taxpayers, the odds of getting audited remain quite low. Only about 1% of all individual income-tax returns filed in each of the past few years have been audited. But the chances of attracting the IRS's attention now are significantly higher than they were just a few years ago.
In fiscal 2007, the IRS examined a total of nearly 1.4 million individual income-tax returns. By contrast, the IRS audited only 617,765 returns in fiscal 2000. The IRS's "coverage" rate -- audits divided by total number of returns filed the previous year -- has also been rising in recent years. For fiscal 2007, it stood at 1.03%, up from 0.98% the prior year and 0.49% in 2000. Even so, it's lower than where it was as recently as 1997.
IRS coverage rates are rising especially rapidly for higher-income taxpayers:
The IRS audited 31,382 returns with incomes of $1 million and higher in fiscal 2007, up from 17,015 the prior year. The coverage rate rose to 9.25% from 6.30%.
The IRS audited 113,105 returns with income of $200,000 and higher, up from 87,558 the prior year. The coverage rate: 2.87%, up from 2.57%.
The IRS audited 293,188 returns with income of $100,000 and higher, up from 257,851. The coverage rate: 1.77%, up from 1.67%.
The IRS relies on numerous techniques to choose which returns are audited. Many returns are selected on the basis of a secret computerized-scoring system that the IRS recently has updated, which is based on a continuing research project involving in-depth audits of thousands of returns. Computer programs assign each tax return a score that evaluates the potential for inaccuracies, based on the IRS's experience with similar returns. IRS staffers then pore through those returns with the highest scores to see which would make the best targets.
Many returns are picked because of "mismatches" -- which means that something a taxpayer reported doesn't match what was reported separately to the IRS by employers, banks or other financial institutions. Thus, one way to reduce your chances of hearing from the IRS is to double-check your return to see if what you reported matches what appears on those forms.
Other returns get audited because they were done by a paid tax preparer whom the IRS suspects of wrongdoing. Still others are picked based on information the IRS has obtained through its growing efforts to identify promoters and participants of tax shelters and other abusive tax-avoidance transactions.
Some returns get selected because of a tip from confidential informants, such as former business partners, ex-spouses or an angry neighbor. Separately, thousands of audit victims are picked at random among various income groups.
Most IRS probes are conducted by mail and are known as "correspondence" audits. These focus on a limited number of specific issues on a return and are designed to address those topics that don't require a full-scale, face-to-face audit. More complex issues are handled through what are known as "field" audits and are conducted in person. These may involve a trip to an IRS office or to the taxpayer's home or business.
In fiscal 2007, just over one million of the 1,384,563 individual income-tax audits were correspondence audits. Of the 31,382 audits of people with income of $1 million and higher, 19,123 were correspondence audits and 12,259 were field audits.
One of the easiest ways to attract IRS attention in a hurry is to claim there's no law that you have to pay federal income taxes or even file a return. IRS officials refer to these and similar excuses as "frivolous" arguments. Don't even think about trying to make such claims. Courts consistently reject them, and the penalty can be severe.
High Earners Face Surge in Tax Audits
The IRS is turning up the heat on high-income taxpayers, especially those who work for themselves. IRS officials say audits of taxpayers making $100,000 or more rose 14% last year from 2006. Recent IRS data also show a 29% increase in audits of people making $200,000 or more -- and an 84% surge in audits of those with incomes of $1 million or more.
IRS research indicates much of the tax-noncompliance is committed by self-employed workers, such as consultants and small-business owners, whose taxes aren't withheld from their pay and whose income isn't reported separately to the government. By contrast, compliance is much higher among people whose pay is reported by their employers and whose taxes are withheld from their pay.
This year, "we will continue to focus on audits of high-income individuals," Linda Stiff, the IRS's acting commissioner, said in an interview. She also says IRS agents are intensifying their focus on "abusive" tax shelters, loosely defined as transactions with no real business purpose other than to avoid taxes.
In addition, agents have increased audits of taxpayers involved in partnerships and businesses organized as "S corporations." With a typical S corporation, income isn't taxed at the corporate level. Instead, profits and losses flow through to shareholders, who are supposed to pay taxes at their own individual rates.
For the vast majority of taxpayers, the odds of getting audited remain quite low. Only about 1% of all individual income-tax returns filed in each of the past few years have been audited. But the chances of attracting the IRS's attention now are significantly higher than they were just a few years ago.
In fiscal 2007, the IRS examined a total of nearly 1.4 million individual income-tax returns. By contrast, the IRS audited only 617,765 returns in fiscal 2000. The IRS's "coverage" rate -- audits divided by total number of returns filed the previous year -- has also been rising in recent years. For fiscal 2007, it stood at 1.03%, up from 0.98% the prior year and 0.49% in 2000. Even so, it's lower than where it was as recently as 1997.
IRS coverage rates are rising especially rapidly for higher-income taxpayers:
The IRS audited 31,382 returns with incomes of $1 million and higher in fiscal 2007, up from 17,015 the prior year. The coverage rate rose to 9.25% from 6.30%.
The IRS audited 113,105 returns with income of $200,000 and higher, up from 87,558 the prior year. The coverage rate: 2.87%, up from 2.57%.
The IRS audited 293,188 returns with income of $100,000 and higher, up from 257,851. The coverage rate: 1.77%, up from 1.67%.
The IRS relies on numerous techniques to choose which returns are audited. Many returns are selected on the basis of a secret computerized-scoring system that the IRS recently has updated, which is based on a continuing research project involving in-depth audits of thousands of returns. Computer programs assign each tax return a score that evaluates the potential for inaccuracies, based on the IRS's experience with similar returns. IRS staffers then pore through those returns with the highest scores to see which would make the best targets.
Many returns are picked because of "mismatches" -- which means that something a taxpayer reported doesn't match what was reported separately to the IRS by employers, banks or other financial institutions. Thus, one way to reduce your chances of hearing from the IRS is to double-check your return to see if what you reported matches what appears on those forms.
Other returns get audited because they were done by a paid tax preparer whom the IRS suspects of wrongdoing. Still others are picked based on information the IRS has obtained through its growing efforts to identify promoters and participants of tax shelters and other abusive tax-avoidance transactions.
Some returns get selected because of a tip from confidential informants, such as former business partners, ex-spouses or an angry neighbor. Separately, thousands of audit victims are picked at random among various income groups.
Most IRS probes are conducted by mail and are known as "correspondence" audits. These focus on a limited number of specific issues on a return and are designed to address those topics that don't require a full-scale, face-to-face audit. More complex issues are handled through what are known as "field" audits and are conducted in person. These may involve a trip to an IRS office or to the taxpayer's home or business.
In fiscal 2007, just over one million of the 1,384,563 individual income-tax audits were correspondence audits. Of the 31,382 audits of people with income of $1 million and higher, 19,123 were correspondence audits and 12,259 were field audits.
One of the easiest ways to attract IRS attention in a hurry is to claim there's no law that you have to pay federal income taxes or even file a return. IRS officials refer to these and similar excuses as "frivolous" arguments. Don't even think about trying to make such claims. Courts consistently reject them, and the penalty can be severe.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Success is having people love you that you want to have love you. - Buffett
It takes 20 years to build a repuatation and 5 minutes to ruin it. think about that and you'll do things differently.
What I'll do is form a partnership where I'll manage the portfolio and have my money in there with you. I'll guarantee you a 5% return, and I;ll get 20% of all profits after that. And i won't tell you what I own because that's distracting. All I want to do is hand in a scorecard when I come off the golf course.
There simply aren't enough saints available to staff a large institution that requires its members to voluntarily act against their own well-being.
The market is there only as a reference point to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. Charlie and I never have an opinion on the market because it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good.
It takes 20 years to build a repuatation and 5 minutes to ruin it. think about that and you'll do things differently.
What I'll do is form a partnership where I'll manage the portfolio and have my money in there with you. I'll guarantee you a 5% return, and I;ll get 20% of all profits after that. And i won't tell you what I own because that's distracting. All I want to do is hand in a scorecard when I come off the golf course.
There simply aren't enough saints available to staff a large institution that requires its members to voluntarily act against their own well-being.
The market is there only as a reference point to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. Charlie and I never have an opinion on the market because it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good.
Couldn't agree more!
"One should guard against preaching to young people success in the customary form as the main aim in life. The most important motive for work in school and in life is pleasure in work, pleasure in its result, and the knowledge of the value of the result to the community." -- Albert Einstein
"One should guard against preaching to young people success in the customary form as the main aim in life. The most important motive for work in school and in life is pleasure in work, pleasure in its result, and the knowledge of the value of the result to the community." -- Albert Einstein
On Walter schloss
Walter Schloss article in Forbes
At 91, the man Warren Buffett famously dubbed a "superinvestor" is still picking unloved stocks.
Walter Schloss has lived through 17 recessions, starting with one when Woodrow Wilson was President. This old-school value investor has made money through many of them. What's ahead for the economy? He doesn't worry about it.
A onetime employee of the grand panjandrum of value, Benjamin Graham, and a man his pal Warren Buffett calls a "superinvestor," Schloss at 91 would rather talk about individual bargains he has spotted. Bushy-eyebrowed and avuncular, Schloss has a laid-back approach that fast-money traders couldn't comprehend. He has never owned a computer and gets his prices from the morning newspaper. A lot of his financial data come from company reports delivered to him by mail, or from hand-me-down copies of Value Line, the stock information service.
He loves the game. Although he stopped running others' money in 2003--by his account, he averaged a 16% total return after fees during five decades as a stand-alone investment manager, versus 10% for the S&P 500--Schloss today oversees his own multimillion-dollar portfolio with the zeal of a guy a third his age. In a day of computer models that purport to quantify that hideous and mysterious force called risk, listening to Schloss talk of his simple, homespun investing methods is a tonic.
During his time as a solo manager after leaving Graham's shop, he was a de facto hedge fund. He charged no management fee but took 25% of profits. He ran his business with no research assistants, not even a secretary. He and his son, Edwin (who joined him in 1973), worked in a single room, poring over Value Line charts and tables.
In a famous 1984 speech titled the "The Superinvestor of Graham-and-Doddsville," Buffett said Schloss was a flesh-and-blood refutation of the Efficient Market Theory. Asked whether he considers himself a superinvestor, Schloss demurs: "Well, I don't like to lose money."
He has a Depression-era thriftiness that benefited clients well. His wife, Anna, jokes that he trails her around their home turning off lights to save money. Those beloved Value Line sheets are from his son, 58, who has a subscription. "Why should I pay?" Schloss says.
Featured in Adam Smith's classic book Supermoney (1972), Schloss amazed the author by touting "cigar butt" stocks like Jeddo Highland Coal and New York Trap Rock. Schloss, as quoted by Smith, was the soul of self-effacement, saying, "I'm not very bright." He didn't go to college and started out as a Wall Street runner in the 1930s. Today he sits in his Manhattan apartment minding his own capital and enjoying simple pleasures. "Look at that hawk!" he erupts at the sight of one winging over Central Park.
One company he's keen on now shows the Schloss method. That's the wheelmaker. Superior Industries International (nyse: SUP - news - people ) gets three-quarters of sales from ailing General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) and Ford. Earnings have been falling for five years. Schloss picks up a Value Line booklet from his living room table and runs his index finger across a line of numbers, spitting out the ones he likes: stock trading at 80% of book value, a 3% dividend yield, no debt. "Most people say, 'What is it going to earn next year?' I focus on assets. If you don't have a lot of debt, it's worth something."
Schloss screens for companies ideally trading at discounts to book value, with no or low debt, and managements that own enough company stock to make them want to do the right thing by shareholders. If he likes what he sees, he buys a little and calls the company for financial statements and proxies. He reads these documents, paying special attention to footnotes. One question he tries to answer from the numbers: Is management honest (meaning not overly greedy)? That matters to him more than smarts. The folks running Hollinger International (other-otc: HLGAF.PK - news - people ) were smart but greedy--not good for investors.
Schloss doesn't profess to understand a company's operations intimately and almost never talks to management. He doesn't think much about timing--am I buying at the low? selling at the high?--or momentum. He doesn't think about the economy. Typical work hours when he was running his fund: 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., only a half hour after the New York Stock Exchange's closing bell.
Schloss owns a prized 1934 edition of Graham's Security Analysis he still thumbs through. Its binding is held together by three strips of Scotch tape. In the small room he invests from now, across the hall from his apartment, one wall contains a half-dozen gag pictures of Buffett.
Schloss first met that more famous value hunter at the annual meeting of wholesaler Marshall Wells. The future billionaire was drawn there for the reason Schloss had come: The stock was trading at a discount to net working capital (cash, inventory and receivables minus current liabilities). That number was a favorite measure of value at Graham-Newman, the investment firm Schloss joined after serving in World War II. Buffett came to the firm after the Marshall Wells meeting, sharing an office with Schloss at New York City's Chanin Building on East 42nd Street.
Schloss left the Graham firm in 1955 and with $100,000 from 19 investors began buying "working capital stocks" on his own, like mattressmaker Burton-Dixie and liquor wholesaler Schenley Industries. Success drew in investors, eventually rising to 92. But Schloss never marketed his fund or opened a second one, and he kept money he had to invest to a manageable size by handing his investors all realized gains at year-end, unless they told him to reinvest.
In 1960 the S&P was up half a percentage point, with dividends. Schloss returned 7% after fees. One winner: Fownes Brothers & Co., a glovemaker picked up for $2, nicely below working capital per share, and sold at $15. In the 1980s and 1990s he also saw big winners. By then, since inventory and receivables had become less important, he had shifted to stocks trading at below book value. But the tempo of trading had picked up. He often found himself buying while stocks still had a long way to fall and selling too early. He bought Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ) below book shortly after it went public in 1994 and made 75% on it in a few months. Then Lehman went on to triple in price.
Still, many of his calls were spot-on. He shorted Yahoo (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) and Amazon before the markets tanked in 2000, and cleaned up. After that, unable to find many cheap stocks, he and Edwin liquidated, handing back investors $130 million. The Schlosses went out with flair: up 28% and 12% in 2000 and 2001 versus the S&P's --9% and --12%.
The S&P now is off 15% from its peak, yet Schloss says he still doesn't see many bargains. He's 30% in cash. A recession, if it comes, may not change much. "There're too many people with money running around who have read Graham," he says.
Nevertheless, he has found a smattering of cheap stocks he thinks are likely to rise at some point. High on his watch list (see table) is CNA Financial, trading at 10% less than book; its shares have fallen 18% in a year. The insurer has little debt, and 89% of the voting stock is owned by Loews Corp. (nyse: LTR - news - people ), controlled by the billionaire Tisch family. He says buy if it gets cheaper. "I can't say people will get rich on it, but I would rather be safe than sorry," he says. "If it falls more, I won't worry about it. Let the Tisches worry about it."
Schloss flips through Value Line again and stops at page 885: Bassett Furniture, battered by a lousy housing market. The chair- and tablemaker is trading at a 40% discount to book and sports an 80-cent dividend, a fat 7% yield. Schloss mutters something about how book value hasn't risen for years and how the dividend may be under threat.
His call: Consider buying when the company cuts its dividend. Then Bassett will be even cheaper and it eventually will recover.
If only he had waited a bit to buy wheelmaker Superior, too. It's been two years since he bought in, and the stock is down a third. But the superinvestor, who has seen countless such drops, is philosophical and confident this one is worth book at least. "How much can you lose?" he asks.
At 91, the man Warren Buffett famously dubbed a "superinvestor" is still picking unloved stocks.
Walter Schloss has lived through 17 recessions, starting with one when Woodrow Wilson was President. This old-school value investor has made money through many of them. What's ahead for the economy? He doesn't worry about it.
A onetime employee of the grand panjandrum of value, Benjamin Graham, and a man his pal Warren Buffett calls a "superinvestor," Schloss at 91 would rather talk about individual bargains he has spotted. Bushy-eyebrowed and avuncular, Schloss has a laid-back approach that fast-money traders couldn't comprehend. He has never owned a computer and gets his prices from the morning newspaper. A lot of his financial data come from company reports delivered to him by mail, or from hand-me-down copies of Value Line, the stock information service.
He loves the game. Although he stopped running others' money in 2003--by his account, he averaged a 16% total return after fees during five decades as a stand-alone investment manager, versus 10% for the S&P 500--Schloss today oversees his own multimillion-dollar portfolio with the zeal of a guy a third his age. In a day of computer models that purport to quantify that hideous and mysterious force called risk, listening to Schloss talk of his simple, homespun investing methods is a tonic.
During his time as a solo manager after leaving Graham's shop, he was a de facto hedge fund. He charged no management fee but took 25% of profits. He ran his business with no research assistants, not even a secretary. He and his son, Edwin (who joined him in 1973), worked in a single room, poring over Value Line charts and tables.
In a famous 1984 speech titled the "The Superinvestor of Graham-and-Doddsville," Buffett said Schloss was a flesh-and-blood refutation of the Efficient Market Theory. Asked whether he considers himself a superinvestor, Schloss demurs: "Well, I don't like to lose money."
He has a Depression-era thriftiness that benefited clients well. His wife, Anna, jokes that he trails her around their home turning off lights to save money. Those beloved Value Line sheets are from his son, 58, who has a subscription. "Why should I pay?" Schloss says.
Featured in Adam Smith's classic book Supermoney (1972), Schloss amazed the author by touting "cigar butt" stocks like Jeddo Highland Coal and New York Trap Rock. Schloss, as quoted by Smith, was the soul of self-effacement, saying, "I'm not very bright." He didn't go to college and started out as a Wall Street runner in the 1930s. Today he sits in his Manhattan apartment minding his own capital and enjoying simple pleasures. "Look at that hawk!" he erupts at the sight of one winging over Central Park.
One company he's keen on now shows the Schloss method. That's the wheelmaker. Superior Industries International (nyse: SUP - news - people ) gets three-quarters of sales from ailing General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) and Ford. Earnings have been falling for five years. Schloss picks up a Value Line booklet from his living room table and runs his index finger across a line of numbers, spitting out the ones he likes: stock trading at 80% of book value, a 3% dividend yield, no debt. "Most people say, 'What is it going to earn next year?' I focus on assets. If you don't have a lot of debt, it's worth something."
Schloss screens for companies ideally trading at discounts to book value, with no or low debt, and managements that own enough company stock to make them want to do the right thing by shareholders. If he likes what he sees, he buys a little and calls the company for financial statements and proxies. He reads these documents, paying special attention to footnotes. One question he tries to answer from the numbers: Is management honest (meaning not overly greedy)? That matters to him more than smarts. The folks running Hollinger International (other-otc: HLGAF.PK - news - people ) were smart but greedy--not good for investors.
Schloss doesn't profess to understand a company's operations intimately and almost never talks to management. He doesn't think much about timing--am I buying at the low? selling at the high?--or momentum. He doesn't think about the economy. Typical work hours when he was running his fund: 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., only a half hour after the New York Stock Exchange's closing bell.
Schloss owns a prized 1934 edition of Graham's Security Analysis he still thumbs through. Its binding is held together by three strips of Scotch tape. In the small room he invests from now, across the hall from his apartment, one wall contains a half-dozen gag pictures of Buffett.
Schloss first met that more famous value hunter at the annual meeting of wholesaler Marshall Wells. The future billionaire was drawn there for the reason Schloss had come: The stock was trading at a discount to net working capital (cash, inventory and receivables minus current liabilities). That number was a favorite measure of value at Graham-Newman, the investment firm Schloss joined after serving in World War II. Buffett came to the firm after the Marshall Wells meeting, sharing an office with Schloss at New York City's Chanin Building on East 42nd Street.
Schloss left the Graham firm in 1955 and with $100,000 from 19 investors began buying "working capital stocks" on his own, like mattressmaker Burton-Dixie and liquor wholesaler Schenley Industries. Success drew in investors, eventually rising to 92. But Schloss never marketed his fund or opened a second one, and he kept money he had to invest to a manageable size by handing his investors all realized gains at year-end, unless they told him to reinvest.
In 1960 the S&P was up half a percentage point, with dividends. Schloss returned 7% after fees. One winner: Fownes Brothers & Co., a glovemaker picked up for $2, nicely below working capital per share, and sold at $15. In the 1980s and 1990s he also saw big winners. By then, since inventory and receivables had become less important, he had shifted to stocks trading at below book value. But the tempo of trading had picked up. He often found himself buying while stocks still had a long way to fall and selling too early. He bought Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ) below book shortly after it went public in 1994 and made 75% on it in a few months. Then Lehman went on to triple in price.
Still, many of his calls were spot-on. He shorted Yahoo (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) and Amazon before the markets tanked in 2000, and cleaned up. After that, unable to find many cheap stocks, he and Edwin liquidated, handing back investors $130 million. The Schlosses went out with flair: up 28% and 12% in 2000 and 2001 versus the S&P's --9% and --12%.
The S&P now is off 15% from its peak, yet Schloss says he still doesn't see many bargains. He's 30% in cash. A recession, if it comes, may not change much. "There're too many people with money running around who have read Graham," he says.
Nevertheless, he has found a smattering of cheap stocks he thinks are likely to rise at some point. High on his watch list (see table) is CNA Financial, trading at 10% less than book; its shares have fallen 18% in a year. The insurer has little debt, and 89% of the voting stock is owned by Loews Corp. (nyse: LTR - news - people ), controlled by the billionaire Tisch family. He says buy if it gets cheaper. "I can't say people will get rich on it, but I would rather be safe than sorry," he says. "If it falls more, I won't worry about it. Let the Tisches worry about it."
Schloss flips through Value Line again and stops at page 885: Bassett Furniture, battered by a lousy housing market. The chair- and tablemaker is trading at a 40% discount to book and sports an 80-cent dividend, a fat 7% yield. Schloss mutters something about how book value hasn't risen for years and how the dividend may be under threat.
His call: Consider buying when the company cuts its dividend. Then Bassett will be even cheaper and it eventually will recover.
If only he had waited a bit to buy wheelmaker Superior, too. It's been two years since he bought in, and the stock is down a third. But the superinvestor, who has seen countless such drops, is philosophical and confident this one is worth book at least. "How much can you lose?" he asks.
Friday, January 18, 2008
AMR getting slaughtered again, not sure what I was thinking when added to it. Looks like dead money for a very long time :( Just when I need the cash for a house. Jumbos are charging very high rates, doesn't bode well for housing at all. The best time to be cash rich and buy down, and I don't hav cash :(
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
OMG, just have lost nearly two third of gains made. Blood letting continues on AMR. Is it options manipulation? Or something more severe?
Yes there's earnings concern with oil high, but they seem to have 21B in cash which seems enough to drag it through in the near term at least and not straight into bankruptcy.. Spin off will reduce debt more. Could have good value going ahead. Really tempted to buy more but don't want to increase margin position.
Oh well, atleast will end active investment by self. Debating on whether to buy KBH home.. tempting..
Yes there's earnings concern with oil high, but they seem to have 21B in cash which seems enough to drag it through in the near term at least and not straight into bankruptcy.. Spin off will reduce debt more. Could have good value going ahead. Really tempted to buy more but don't want to increase margin position.
Oh well, atleast will end active investment by self. Debating on whether to buy KBH home.. tempting..
Friday, January 04, 2008
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Friday, December 28, 2007
Was out of VSE at a 34% profit last week, annualized about 60%. Ok.
AMR is suffering big time. All my fortunes are tied to it now. Doesn't look too good. It may go down to $11-12 and then won't be able to look at my brokerage account any more. Not that its easy now.. Selling seems overdone, but given huge debt and high oil prices, the market seems to be right in marking it down so much. May take a couple of years and some luck. Also, maybe coming consolidation in airlines and its spinoff of Eagle may be good for AMR. Suspect though that there may be year end tax selling that's also at play. The 30 day wash rule should make this one rebound a bit in February. Some of the favorite homes on Zillow seemed to have dropped in value recently, kind of heartening.
Had a great time in Maui. Also donated to Smile train today.
AMR is suffering big time. All my fortunes are tied to it now. Doesn't look too good. It may go down to $11-12 and then won't be able to look at my brokerage account any more. Not that its easy now.. Selling seems overdone, but given huge debt and high oil prices, the market seems to be right in marking it down so much. May take a couple of years and some luck. Also, maybe coming consolidation in airlines and its spinoff of Eagle may be good for AMR. Suspect though that there may be year end tax selling that's also at play. The 30 day wash rule should make this one rebound a bit in February. Some of the favorite homes on Zillow seemed to have dropped in value recently, kind of heartening.
Had a great time in Maui. Also donated to Smile train today.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
From Investment Gurus by Peter Tanous:
Peter Lynch : The problem with technical analysis is that somebody could love the stock at 10 and hate it at 6. But I have traditionally liked one formation. The stock goes from 50 to 8, then is goes sideways for a few years between 8 and 11. Now if something goes right with this company, the stock is going north. These make a nice research list. You look at stocks that have bottomed out. Its like trying to catch a falling knife, you want the knife to stick in the wood. When it stops vibrating, you can pick it up.
Laura Sloate : In 1973, I couldn't find any stocks that were cheap enough. Management was on my case since I wasn't generating any commissions. At that point, I realized that if you worked for a big company, you would be controlled by the management.
If the average return on invested capital is less than the cost of the capital, you know its a poorly managed company. If we look at our stocks through 91-94, 12 of the 15 stocks that we sold because of a sell discipline of selling at 15% decline, 12 of these were higher six months later when we originally bought them, and a couple were real winners. So, we modified our sell discipline, we don't let it go down and not do anything. Its an evolution of process based on examination of results. Statistically we found that in 80% of the cases, if we had kept the stocks we sold six more months, we would have made money. Most of the bad stuff is in the price; we sometimes bought prematurely.
Peter Lynch : The problem with technical analysis is that somebody could love the stock at 10 and hate it at 6. But I have traditionally liked one formation. The stock goes from 50 to 8, then is goes sideways for a few years between 8 and 11. Now if something goes right with this company, the stock is going north. These make a nice research list. You look at stocks that have bottomed out. Its like trying to catch a falling knife, you want the knife to stick in the wood. When it stops vibrating, you can pick it up.
Laura Sloate : In 1973, I couldn't find any stocks that were cheap enough. Management was on my case since I wasn't generating any commissions. At that point, I realized that if you worked for a big company, you would be controlled by the management.
If the average return on invested capital is less than the cost of the capital, you know its a poorly managed company. If we look at our stocks through 91-94, 12 of the 15 stocks that we sold because of a sell discipline of selling at 15% decline, 12 of these were higher six months later when we originally bought them, and a couple were real winners. So, we modified our sell discipline, we don't let it go down and not do anything. Its an evolution of process based on examination of results. Statistically we found that in 80% of the cases, if we had kept the stocks we sold six more months, we would have made money. Most of the bad stuff is in the price; we sometimes bought prematurely.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
From Friends, Lovers, Chocolate by Alexander McCall Smith:
A good work, once drawn attention to by its author inevitably becomes an exercise in self-congratulation.
It always surprised her that her niece seemed uninterested in what people did. For Isabel, it was fundamentally important information if one were even to begin to understand somebody.
A Scotswoman would expect equality and consideration in marriage unlike an Italian woman.
The sentiment sounded trite as most good sentiments did. It was hard to make goodness and good people sound interesting. Yet the good are worthy of note, because they battled and that battle was a great story.
The Germans deserved great credit for their moral seriousness, which is why Isabel liked them so much. Anyone was capable of doing what they did in their historical moment of madness - and their goodness lay in the fact that they later faced up to what they had done.
Everybody's job is like that, I wash things and then they become dirty again. Even the Queen's job is like that. The Queen signs one law and then they pass another. She opens one bridge and then they build another.
What is patriotism but the love of the good things that one saw and ate in childhood?
A good work, once drawn attention to by its author inevitably becomes an exercise in self-congratulation.
It always surprised her that her niece seemed uninterested in what people did. For Isabel, it was fundamentally important information if one were even to begin to understand somebody.
A Scotswoman would expect equality and consideration in marriage unlike an Italian woman.
The sentiment sounded trite as most good sentiments did. It was hard to make goodness and good people sound interesting. Yet the good are worthy of note, because they battled and that battle was a great story.
The Germans deserved great credit for their moral seriousness, which is why Isabel liked them so much. Anyone was capable of doing what they did in their historical moment of madness - and their goodness lay in the fact that they later faced up to what they had done.
Everybody's job is like that, I wash things and then they become dirty again. Even the Queen's job is like that. The Queen signs one law and then they pass another. She opens one bridge and then they build another.
What is patriotism but the love of the good things that one saw and ate in childhood?
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
From A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith :
The only remedy is an enhanced skepticism that would resolutely associate too evident optimism with probable foolishness and that would not associate intelligence with the acquisition or administration of large sums of money.
A further rule is that when a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when this is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is time for caution. Perhaps, indeed, there is opportunity, but a rich history provides proof that as or more often, there is only delusion or self-delusion.
So, comes down to being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Buffett was right all along with his one liner as was Templeton.
The only remedy is an enhanced skepticism that would resolutely associate too evident optimism with probable foolishness and that would not associate intelligence with the acquisition or administration of large sums of money.
A further rule is that when a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when this is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is time for caution. Perhaps, indeed, there is opportunity, but a rich history provides proof that as or more often, there is only delusion or self-delusion.
So, comes down to being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Buffett was right all along with his one liner as was Templeton.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
From Isabel in The Right Attitude to Rain :
That woman would like to be elsewhere thought Isabel; as so many people would. How many of us are happy to be exactly where we are at the moment? Only the completely happy think that they are in the correct place.
Never heard it put so well. Iam extremely happy :)
Why we need a recession -- soon
By Jon Markman
Check out the pessimistic housing headlines. When there's this much smoke, usually there is not just fire but a raging hell storm about to be cut loose. And Lord knows, there's much dry tinder available to the forces of financial doom, what with residential construction stopped cold, Detroit automakers idling and virtually the entire financial-services work force dusting off resumes.
So is the inferno really upon us? Well, no. And that's a pity because recessions clear out the excess optimism, debt and inventory that collect during long stretches of expansion. Moreover, a recession delayed may be a recession that turns into a real whopper.
Banking analyst Richard Bove points out that debt in the U.S. economy over the past 5 years has grown at a pace 3 times faster than income. Nominal gross-domestic-product growth has advanced at 3% while financial debt has grown at a 9.7% clip to $13.8 trillion.
As consumers collectively quit spending, retailers see inventories pile up, manufacturers fire workers, unemployment explodes and wage growth collapses.
Just as heroin dealers are in business to sell drugs, banks are in business to make loans. Their financial engineers will do everything in their power to force debt down consumers' throats.
Because the administration in Washington knows that if all those loans are called in and consumers can't make good on them, there will be hell to pay. And a nasty recession just won't do in an election year.
So the government is in the process of twisting the arms of Fed members to lower interest rates. That will allow banks to go back to one of their favorite recession-delaying ploys: encouraging debt-strapped consumers to refinance their loans at lower rates.
Banks took big write-downs this past October.
Investors will let them get away with that sort of rudeness only once. If the banks do it again -- shareholders are likely to slaughter the bank stocks, pushing them down at least another 20%.
"Bad loans are going onto their balance sheet faster than they can write them off," he said.
Once investors determine that the banks' bad loans are out of control and that the risk cannot be adequately measured, they will sell first and ask questions later. So, we are about to enter even more interesting times. A debt-led recession punctuated with joblessness and foreclosure is almost certainly en route. The only questions are whether it comes early next year or in 2009, and how deep a hole we'll need to dig for the burial. Whatever the timing or depth, continue to avoid the bank and brokerage stocks.
Fine print One of the first groups of companies to go in a recession: restaurants that serve the upper middle class. Recent victims include McCormick & Schmick's (MSSR, news, msgs) and P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB, news, msgs).
Strangely, some stocks tend to do well in a recession, including REITs, insurance companies and, for some reason, containerboard makers. Also keep in mind that the best time to buy stocks for the long term is right smack in the middle of a recession, so you will want to start buying the banks and home builders once their currently hidden problems are more fully reflected in their stock prices. For more on the banks' issues, read my Sept. 14 column, "What the big banks aren't telling you -- yet."
That woman would like to be elsewhere thought Isabel; as so many people would. How many of us are happy to be exactly where we are at the moment? Only the completely happy think that they are in the correct place.
Never heard it put so well. Iam extremely happy :)
Why we need a recession -- soon
By Jon Markman
Check out the pessimistic housing headlines. When there's this much smoke, usually there is not just fire but a raging hell storm about to be cut loose. And Lord knows, there's much dry tinder available to the forces of financial doom, what with residential construction stopped cold, Detroit automakers idling and virtually the entire financial-services work force dusting off resumes.
So is the inferno really upon us? Well, no. And that's a pity because recessions clear out the excess optimism, debt and inventory that collect during long stretches of expansion. Moreover, a recession delayed may be a recession that turns into a real whopper.
Banking analyst Richard Bove points out that debt in the U.S. economy over the past 5 years has grown at a pace 3 times faster than income. Nominal gross-domestic-product growth has advanced at 3% while financial debt has grown at a 9.7% clip to $13.8 trillion.
As consumers collectively quit spending, retailers see inventories pile up, manufacturers fire workers, unemployment explodes and wage growth collapses.
Just as heroin dealers are in business to sell drugs, banks are in business to make loans. Their financial engineers will do everything in their power to force debt down consumers' throats.
Because the administration in Washington knows that if all those loans are called in and consumers can't make good on them, there will be hell to pay. And a nasty recession just won't do in an election year.
So the government is in the process of twisting the arms of Fed members to lower interest rates. That will allow banks to go back to one of their favorite recession-delaying ploys: encouraging debt-strapped consumers to refinance their loans at lower rates.
Banks took big write-downs this past October.
Investors will let them get away with that sort of rudeness only once. If the banks do it again -- shareholders are likely to slaughter the bank stocks, pushing them down at least another 20%.
"Bad loans are going onto their balance sheet faster than they can write them off," he said.
Once investors determine that the banks' bad loans are out of control and that the risk cannot be adequately measured, they will sell first and ask questions later. So, we are about to enter even more interesting times. A debt-led recession punctuated with joblessness and foreclosure is almost certainly en route. The only questions are whether it comes early next year or in 2009, and how deep a hole we'll need to dig for the burial. Whatever the timing or depth, continue to avoid the bank and brokerage stocks.
Fine print One of the first groups of companies to go in a recession: restaurants that serve the upper middle class. Recent victims include McCormick & Schmick's (MSSR, news, msgs) and P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB, news, msgs).
Strangely, some stocks tend to do well in a recession, including REITs, insurance companies and, for some reason, containerboard makers. Also keep in mind that the best time to buy stocks for the long term is right smack in the middle of a recession, so you will want to start buying the banks and home builders once their currently hidden problems are more fully reflected in their stock prices. For more on the banks' issues, read my Sept. 14 column, "What the big banks aren't telling you -- yet."
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Samuel Johnson quotes this time..
- A fly may sting a stately horse and make him wince; but one is but an insect, and the other is a horse still.
- A wise man will make haste to forgive, because he knows the true value of time, and will not suffer it to pass away in unnecessary pain.
- Books like friends, should be few and well-chosen.
- Curiosity is one of the most permanent and certain characteristics of a vigorous intellect.
- Where there is nothing but pure misery there never is any recourse to the mention of it.
- Every man who attacks my belief, diminishes in some degree my confidence in it, and therefore makes me uneasy; and I am angry with him who makes me uneasy.
- Getting money is not all a man's business: to cultivate kindness is a valuable part of the business of life.
- I look upon every day to be lost, in which I do not make a new acquaintance.
- If a man does not make new acquaintances as he advances through life, he will soon find himself left alone.
- It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
- Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome.
- Poverty is a great enemy to human happiness; it certainly destroys liberty, and it makes some virtues impracticable.
- Self-confidence is the first requisite to great undertakings.
- The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good.
- Those who attain any excellence, commonly spend life in one pursuit; for excellence is not gained upon easier terms.
- To be happy at home is the ultimate result of all ambition.
- We are inclined to believe those whom we do not know because they have never deceived us.
- What is easy is seldom excellent.
- What we hope ever to do with ease, we must learn first to do with diligence.
- Worth seeing? Yes; but not worth going to see.
- You can't be in politics unless you can walk in a room and know in a minute who's for you and who's against you.
- You hesitate to stab me with a word, and know not - silence is the sharper sword.