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Saturday, June 29, 2013

From "The outsiders" by William Thorndike

-The outsider CEOs achieved extraordinary results by consistently zigging while their peers zagged.

-The outsider CEOs consistently calculated the projected return before starting a project. They believed that the value of the financial projections was determined by the quality of their assumptions, not by the number of pages. Many developed single-page analytical templates that focused employees on key variables. These deceptively simple but analytical one-pagers served as a trigger to invoke Kahneman's slower reflective/analytical System 2

-To Buffett, there is a compelling  Zen-like logic in choosing to associated with the best and in avoiding unnecessary change.

-Buffett believes that excellent investment ideas are rare and exceptional returns come from concentrated portfolios. "We believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it"
-Better to change vessels in a chronically leaking boat than to patch leaks

-See's : The Turning point : WB bought See's for $25 million. They had tangible book of $7M and 4.2M in pre-tax profits. They paid an exorbitant 3X book and 6 times pre-tax income compared to Graham's strictures. They saw a beloved brand with excellent returns on capital and untapped pricing power. The company has sent 1.65B in free cash to Omaha in 39 years.

-Buffett's contrarian insight was that companies with low capital needs and the ability to raise prices were actually best positioned to resist inflation's corrosive effects.

-The deals not done were very important.

-Singleton was a very disciplined buyer, never paying more than 12 times earnings and purchasing most companies at lower multiples. Many companies were acquired using Teledyne's pricey stock.

on gold

From Hulbert on gold 3/29/13
Consider: Investors who bought gold at its January 1980 peak of $875/oz are today still below water in inflation-adjusted terms. They even were showing a loss two years ago when gold was trading for more than $1,900.
The investment implication is to pay careful attention to gold's longer-term cycles before buying gold—or be willing to hold it for many decades.
So how should you decide where gold is in its long-term cycle? As a rule of thumb, the researchers urge investors to calculate a ratio of gold's price to the level of the consumer-price index. This ratio's historical average has been about 3.4 to 1, so it is a good bet that gold is overvalued whenever the ratio is well above that level.
When gold hit its high over $1,900 an ounce in September 2011, for example, the ratio was more than 8 to 1. In January 1980, the ratio stood at more than 11 to 1.
Unfortunately for the gold bugs, the current gold/CPI ratio—5.3 to 1—is still above average, even in the wake of gold's plunge over the past three months. To be in line with that average, gold would have to trade for $780 an ounce.