Wsj 2012

12/4/12
ISM index of non manufacturing activity - above 50 signifies expansion. They expect it to be 54 in November. This is the 35th consecutive month above 50, that dignifies expansion. A number closer to that line or below it would be due to a weak economy or fiscal cliff worries. Services.
In jan 2008, a streak of 57 consecutive months of expansion was broken when the index plunged to 45. The great recession started that month.


11/21
-open source animation software
Dreamworks open vdb
Disney render man 2000
Sony alembic

-vivendi owns canal plus



largest ng Producer in us is xom, next is Chesapeake.
Suncor those producers who mine bitumen and produce synthetic crude from it , the break even threshold is $100 a barrel. Most efficient oil sands producers need $50
Us n Dakota oil output is threatening Canada's boom. Lower prices.
10/30/2012
Housing starts have risen to 872k.
During the peak of new home construction in 2006, the us built 1.6M homes. Today's 872k annual rate of homes is short of average for past half century. On average, buildrrs hVe started construction on about 1.5M new homes a year since 1959

Samsung mobile business accounts for more than half of revenue

Telefonica has highest debt 57b. Difficult to refi



Buffett thinks sfh is a great buy right now compared to 5 yrs from now.
Us is doing better than Europe. Asia slowing some as is global economy.
Loves wfc and IBM
Doesn't think ng will be exported from us. Should not be anyway for benefit of future generations.
Acquisitions happening at high multiples dues to cheap money.
He thinks European banks still have too much leverage



3M only 30% revenue from north America. A good bellwether for global economy. Same as Dow chemical?

Natural gas is 70% of fertilizer cost


Hotel companies
Accor and ihg largest in china
Hilton Waldorf Astoria doubletree
Marriott ritz renaissance courtyard
Accor Sofitel Pullman mgallery mercure
Novotel ibis etap
Ihg intercontinental holiday inn crowne indigo

College housing firms- American campus communities, education realty trust, landmark properties
Warehouse firm- prologis
Mall company Simon property group

Bp estimate of reparation to us is 5-21B

Caterpillar promotes from within
Total eni at discount due to Europe
Avoid realogy iPo
Worlds no 2 retailer by sales Carrefour.

Projected Costs per megawatt hour 2017
Ng 66
Hydro 88
Wind 96
Coal 97
Geothermal 98
Nuclear 111
Biomass 115
Solar photovoltaic 152
Solar thermal 242

10/7
Fox news corp
Abc Disney
CBS CBS corp
NBC Comcast
Focus features a unit of comcasts NBC universal
Image nation - financing of movies. Partially owned by Abu dhabi
Xom, cop and chevron defend tracking as safe
-Monsanto requires growers to use seeds only for a single crop and they can't save the 2nd generation seeds from the harvest. Seeds are called roundup ready and produce crops resistant to weed killer.
-
10/1
Drought has sent crops skyrocketing but south America and us should increase plantings next year. Should benefit fertilizer companies like mosaic, potash corp, cf industries. Rock wood holdings, .

- metals could drop almost 40%. Current bhp and rio shares trade at 15 times earnings at current metal prices.
-seadrill, noble and transocean deep water drillers may benefit as oil reserves become more difficult to reach
-nat gas is 2.8 per mbtu, up from 1.91 but well below average of 10 yrs $6.
Companies that benefit from cheap gas: mosaic, lyondellbasell. Both use nat gas as inputs.


9/29

-Anglo American lot of project delays, lagging gold and problems in Africa.
-Ford gm Peugeot etc struggling in Europe
-modest debt and improving profits in financial statements.
-make money in diverse ways
-consolidated Edison
-at the moment priciest shares based on forward p/e are steady consumer staples, telecom and utilities
-one time share buy backs are I'll timed. Consistently buying back shares companies outperform a bit. Eg autozone, resmed. Also those who pay a dividend and repurchase shares.
-a basket of stocks with the highest investor yield: high dividends + large buy back yielded 6.6% more
-highest investor yield: duke energy, triumph group and Polaris industries.
-biggest buys : susp 20.50 7.2m$, agco 5m 45.56 Natr 3m 15.90,
-bac Merrill acquisition have good profits but country wide was disaster. Overpaid for Merrill.
-avoid Sony Olympus sharp renesas.
Sony 4 yrs of losses,
-

-Leslie Michelson CEO of private health management co.ultra high end health care. Manages patients care by coordinating multiple best doctors, research etc.

9/27
-proctor gamble concentrated on upscale products. Pampers, charmin, Gillette, Tide, Pantene, Olay, Old spice,
-tempur pedic has 13% of us market, sealy has 22%.
-fiat got 92% of first half profit from Chrysler.
-premium metallurgical coal was trading 330 per metricyon, now 170 per ton. Chinese sales down.
-honhai net margin from 12% in 2000 to 2.4% in 2012
-


Rim us market share has dropped from over 50% 2008 to under 5% in 2012.
-airlines hand out iPads instead of tv screens.
- dishtv to roll out broadband service for rural areas. Directv also next quarter. These 2 are competitors. Echo star is sibling of dishtv that launched a high speed satellite. Cable and phone companies offer 305 mbps max vs max 5-10mpbs for 39$ to existing customers or 49$ per month. for new. 19 million market?

9/23

-the launch pad- book on ycombinator. Where apps are hatched.
-where have all the cowboys gone? Old fashioned individualism.

-exelon nuclear plant operator. Dominion resources. AES corp gas fired units.

- Delhi dazzler- the story of my assassins. Tarun tejpal

-unh being added to Dow. Intuitive surgical makes robots for surgery. Richly valued. Varian medical a better bet, radiation machines to precisely target rumors. Cerner's systems digigitize patient records. Perrigo is maker of store brands of OTC medicines. Gilead sciences has an HIV treatment that can replace multiple pills with single. Also has a hepatitis c drug with promising results. Insurers have uncertainty with future overhaul but unh has a good history of helping customers cut costs. Merck Pfizer also decent.
-denbury sold bakken assets to Exxon. More interested in old oil fields instead of shale. Gas accounts for less than 10% of output compared with 2/3rds for the sector. If you're betting on a gas rebound in 2013, denbury is not for you. Denbury made the highest margin per barrel. Unlike a shale field much of the investment is made upfront in securing co2 supplies and pipelines. They pump co2 into mature oil fields to force more oil out. Once this initial spending is done, less spending required to maintain output. Also lives within its means, capex at denbury is equal to cash flow compared to 160% at peers.


-Liberty global 2nd largest csble subscribers after Comcast. Operates 13 cable companies in Europe. In Europe cable business more regulations and different appetites for expensive cable. Libertys monthly arpu is$24 in Germany vs nearly $150 in the us for Comcast. But libertys per subscriber content costs are $5 per month whereas they are about $40 for us companies.
Liberty has raised profits even during economic turmoil and aggressively bought back shares. If Europe consolidation can occur, it may benefit.



9/22
Last 5 yrs, gold has risen 142%, miners of gold gone up only 20%. Gold deposits harder to develop. While gold prices doubled so did costs. Also miners profligate spenders. Over last decade, they made operating cash flow combined of 68b but spent 89b on acquisitions and capex. Dividends meanwhile wee less than 10b even as shareholders were diluted to help fund expansion with the share count jumping 151%. Acquisitions have irked investors at barrick gold, kinross. Canadian b2gold dropped 12% after saying it would pay 26% premium for Cga mining. One route miners could try is what oil majors did in late 1990s: mergers with no premium paid.


-Pernod 2nd largest company- makes chivas absolut among others. Diageo is number 1
-brown Forman jack Daniels no.3 spirits group by sales.
-beam
-ikea catalog graphics 3 interns
-virgin owns 51% of Singapore
-royalty trusts depletion means income may go to zero. Also no principal returned
-syartups bar code for tracking where food is from. Chegg is textbook rental
-best buy 91% profit down
-sales force yet to turn a profit
-lowes overcapacity too many stores

-in us car sales 1.2M per month. 240 gm, 196 ford, 188 tm, 148 Chrysler, 131 Honda, 98 Nissan. Shortage of Hyundai due to strike.

-85M pc shipments in 2nd quarter worldwide. 4m in brazil 5th largest market.

-national oil well varco and Cameron make oil rigs and parts for them. Transocean runs the drilling rigs. Bp etc own the oil coming out.

-globally, 69% of planets fresh water used in agriculture, 23% in industry and 8% in municipal uses.

-Monsanto making drought resistant crops. Droughtgard

From eat pray love

I have been thinking that I need to consciously divert my mind from negative thoughts and focus on things that move my life forward. Iam ruining my own potential by corrosive thoughts.

- as smoking is to the lungs, so is resentment to the soul
- god dwells within you as you yourself, exactly the way you are.
-to know god, you need only to renounce one thing -your sense of division from god. Otherwise, just stay as you were made, within your natural character.