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Monday, August 20, 2007

From Bertrand Russell's "In Praise of Idleness". Would not survive without his writings.

There will be happiness and joy of life, instead of frayed nerves, weariness, and dyspepsia. Originality will be unhampered, and there will be no need to conform. Ordinary men and women, having the opportunity of a happy life, will become more kindly and less persecuting and less inclined to view others with suspicion. Good nature is, of all moral qualities, the one that the world needs most, and good nature is the result of ease and security, not of a life of arduous struggle. Hitherto we have continued to be as energetic as before machines; we have been foolish.

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Charles Ellis

From Charles Ellis's book "Winning the Loser's Game", this book was actually written for professional money managers :

  • In a loser's game, the outcome is determined by the mistakes made by the loser.
  • In amateur tennis, the victor gets a higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.
  • So staying back, and keeping the ball in -- is good strategy for amateur tennis players.
  • Focus on not making mistakes.
  • Regression to the mean is too powerful.
  • Despite the enticing appeal of reducing market exposure by astute sales when the securities appear to be overpriced and boldly reinvesting when prices have declined to attractive low levels, market timing does not work.
  • So much of the "action" occurs in such brief periods and at times when we are captives of conventional consensus.
  • Taking out the 10 best days from a 5 year period, reduced the return from 18% to 12%.
  • Impossible to know when the "best" days will occur.
  • Better to stay invested waiting for the "best" days rather than miss out.
  • So, say the "long-termers", stay invested through the rough times, that's the only sane ways to make sure you're there for the good times!
  • Unfortunately, security analysis, does not appear to be a useful or profitable activity. Stocks that investment managers sell after doing fundamental research , and the stocks they don't buy, typically do as well as the stocks they do buy.
  • Problem is that security analysis is done so very well by so many.
  • You can do more for your portfolio by developing and sustaining wise long-range policies than by skillful manipulations of the individual holdings within the portfolio.
  • Time is Archimedes' lever in investing
  • Give a portfolio time to evolve.
  • Sell when you want to, not when you have to.
  • If the time period is long, the wise investor can commit without great anxiety to investments that in the short run appear to be very risky.
  • Time transforms investments from least attractive to most attractive.
  • 3 types of risks : Price risk (price paid), interest rate risk, business risk (business failure).
  • The central fact about both stock group risk and individual stock risk is that "they do not need to be accepted" by the investor. They can be eliminated. Risk that comes from investing in particular market segments or specific issues can be diversified away - to oblivion.
  • The great secret for success in long-term investing is to avoid serious losses.
  • POLICY is the MOST EFFECTIVE ANTIDOTE to PANIC.
  • If a major decision is truly fiduciary in nature, it never needs to be done quickly. Time urgent decisions are never fiduciary.
  • The long, sad history of market timing is clear: Virtually nobody gets it right even half the time. And cost of getting it wrong wipes out the occasional gain of getting it right.
  • If you find yourself caught up in the excitement or a rising market or distressed by a falling market, STOP. Break it off. Go for a walk and cool down.
  • When you feel euphoric, you are probably in for a bruising.
  • When you feel down, remember its darkest hour before dawn- and take no action.
  • The secret to long-term success is benign neglect.
  • Leave compounding alone to do its good work for you.
  • Most of our blunders are emotional, not computational. How your investments behave is beyond your control. But how you behave in response to fluctuations is within your control.

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

From one of my favorite books "John Neff on investing" :

  • If we shared a compartment on a long train ride, what you read here is what I would tell you about investing.
  • Individuals enjoy a key advantage over professionals, you can pick and choose and bide your time unflustered by the fierce and corrosive quarterly performance sweepstakes.
  • Value investing demands sober reflection. Scarce to begin with, and even scarcer in bull markets.
  • Now and then a windfall, but mostly a trudge. If you're in too big a hurry, a mattress may be better to store your money.
  • I attribute success not to genius or blinding insights, but to a frugal nature and lessons well-learned.
  • The more I delve into the past, the more I see lessons that ultimately played out in my choice of career. Perseverance, sympathy for the woebegone, frugality, stubbornness, and integrity, together with an inclination to flout convention and a penchant for rigorous analysis-these qualities form the building blocks for a successful investment strategy.
  • Shortcuts usually grease the rails to disappointing outcomes.
  • Bargain shopping made an impression on me. I've never bought a stock unless it was on sale.
  • I was probably not the easiest of sons to deal with, but he was a difficult man. Over the slightest infractions, he harangued people who worked for him. His behavior did not fit my definition of civility. Though ethical and honest, he was extremely demanding and especially sympathetic. To some degree, I inherited his tendency to be demanding. But my father was not very happy, and bitterness added sting to his demands.
  • The capacity of investors to believe in something too good to be true seems almost infinite at times.
  • We followed one durable investment style whether the market was up, down or indifferent. (Low P/E, Growth excess of 7%, Yield protection, Solid companies in growing fields, Strong fundamental case)
  • You don't need stunning growth rates. Absent stunning growth rates, low P/E stocks can capture the wonders of P/E expansion with less risk than skittish growth stocks.An increase in the P/E ration coupled with improved earnings, turbocharges the appreciation potential. e.g. (Static P/E : EPS - $2, Market price - $26, P/E - 13, Growth - 11%, Expected earnings - $2.22, New P/E - 13, New Market price - $28.86, Appreciation potential - 11% VS Expanded P/E : EPS - $2, Market price - $16, P/E - 8, Growth rate - 11%, Expected Earnings - $2.22, New P/E - 11, New Market price - $24.42, Appreciation potential - 53%)
  • Windsor was not fancy. As in tennis, I tried to keep the ball in play and let my adversaries make the mistakes. I picked stocks with low p/e multiples primed to be upgraded in the market if they were deserving, and endeavored to keep losers at break-even levels.
  • For Windsor's purposes, a low p/e multiple usually languished 40-60% below the prevailing market multiples.
  • Low p/e companies growing faster than 7% a year tipped us off to underappreciated signs of life, particularly if accompanied by an attention-getting dividend.
  • When news circluates that a company has missed an earnings estimate, it is normally compared to a consensus. If the company's fundamentals remain strong, low p/e investors often recognize buying opportunities.